Analysis:
- LT trend since 2012 shows ~$100 as key support level, even if support (prior resistance now support) from 2014 fails.
- $100 is 67% off of the recent high of $306. Ouch! But this also means there's large upside to get back to those levels.
Despite Trump admin opposition to renewables, FSLR is well positioned with US manufacturing capability, a
20B backlog on current 44B in revenue. This means they could grow YoY throughout the Trump admin with just the current backlog. Also, they're profitable with 30% Net Income margins form the last year. Large commercial customers (namely, tech giants through renewables developers) are happy to continue investing billions in renewables (and to trade high capex for low opex).
Investment Thesis:
- Monitor this $130-135 level. If broken with conviction, we look towards $100 entry points. IMO, worst case is also $100-130 price by EOY 2026.
- LT trend since 2012 shows ~$100 as key support level, even if support (prior resistance now support) from 2014 fails.
- $100 is 67% off of the recent high of $306. Ouch! But this also means there's large upside to get back to those levels.
Despite Trump admin opposition to renewables, FSLR is well positioned with US manufacturing capability, a
20B backlog on current 44B in revenue. This means they could grow YoY throughout the Trump admin with just the current backlog. Also, they're profitable with 30% Net Income margins form the last year. Large commercial customers (namely, tech giants through renewables developers) are happy to continue investing billions in renewables (and to trade high capex for low opex). Investment Thesis:
- Monitor this $130-135 level. If broken with conviction, we look towards $100 entry points. IMO, worst case is also $100-130 price by EOY 2026.
Trade active
Bad news from the latest earnings call...First Solar now expects fiscal 2025:
> Earnings in the range of $12.50 to $17.50, compared with a prior estimate of $17.00 to $20.00
> Revenue guidance was lowered to $4.5 billion to $5.5 billion from an earlier range of $5.3 billion to $5.8 billion
Still targeting ~$100 entry point.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.