Long
FTM ABC: Full view 07/16/2024
Defining cycle by 5 parts:
1. Bottom: price hits lowest before crossover
2. EMA cross up: ema 22 goes above ema 55 on daily timeframe
3. Peak: price peaks in between the ema cross up and downthis period,
4. EMA cross down: ema 22 goes below ema 55 on daily timeframe
5. Bottom: price hits its lowest bottom after the cross
Cycle A
Bottom A-
(Mar 13th 2020) price bottomed $0.0017
EMA cross up A-
>68 days later
(May 20th 2020) EMA 22 went above the EMA 55
Peak A-
>105 days later
-(Sep 2nd 2020) price peaked @ $0.0566
>173 days bottom to peak
EMA cross down A-
> 46 days later
-(Oct 18th 2020) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom B-
>17 days later
-(Nov 4th 2020) price bottomed at 1.262c. (-77% from previous peak $0.0566.)
>63 days from Peak A to Bottom B.
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Time of Cycle A: 236 days
>236 days from Bottom A to Bottom B (entire Cycle A)
Time of Bottom A to Peak A: 173 days
>173 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak A to Bottom B: 63 days
>63 days Peak A to Bottom B (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle A most profit:
> $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
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Cycle B
Bottom B-
-(Nov 4th 2020) price bottomed at $0.01262.
EMA cross up B-
>66 days later
-(Jan 9th 2021) the EMA 22 went above the EMA 55.
Peak B-
>121 days later
-(10th May 2021) price peaked $0.9588.
> 187 days from bottom b to peak b
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 7597.46% gain. (76x)
EMA cross down B-
>15 days later
-(25th May 2021) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom C-
>56 days later
-(July 20th 2021) 56 days later $0.1534 found a bottom (-84% from previous peak $0.01262)
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Time of Cycle B: 258 days
>236 days from Bottom B to Bottom C (entire Cycle B)
Time of Bottom B to Peak B: 187 days
>187 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak B to Bottom C: 71 days
>71 days Peak B to Bottom C (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle B most profit:
> $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
Cycle A + B most profit:
> $0.0017 to $0.9588 564x (56400.00%)
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Cycle C
Bottom C-
-(July 20th 2021) 56 days later $0.1534 found a bottom (-84%)
EMA cross up B-
>56 days later
-(Aug 14th 2021) the EMA 22 went above the EMA 55.
Peak C-
>76 days later
-(28th Oct 2021) price peaked $3.457.
> 100 days from bottom c to peak c
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 2271.44% gain. (22.7x)
EMA cross down C-
>37 days later
-(4th Dec 2021) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom D-
>100 days later
-(Mar 14th 2022) 100 days later $1.0343 found a bottom (-70%)
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Time of Cycle C: 289 days
>237 days from Bottom C to Bottom D (entire Cycle C)
Time of Bottom C to Peak C: 100 days
>100 days Bottom C to Peak C (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak C to Bottom D:
>137 days Peak C to Bottom D (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle C most profit:
> $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
Cycle A + B + C most profit:
> $0.0017 to $3.457 2033.5x (203300.52%)
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Bear Market
Bottom Bear-
-(Nov 22nd 2022) 359 days later $0.1627 found a bottom (-95.31%)
-Ended April 29th 2023
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Time of Cycle D: 532 days
>532 days from Bottom C to Bottom of Bear (Entire Bear Market)
Oct 19th 2023
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Guessing A2
Length of cycle. A 236 B 258 C 289 days
Avg sum/3 = 261 days (July 4th 2024)
B-A = 22
C-B = 31 ...31-22= +9 >> 289+9 = 298 days (August 11th 2024)
Guessing % gained
A $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
B $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
C $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
A+B+C / 3 = 4,366%.
B-A= 4268.05
A-C= 1157.12
4268.05 - 1157.12 = 3110.93%
instead got the ratio of A/B = 0.4382 x C = 951%
Percent gain
0.1707 up 951% = 0.1707 + (0.1707 x 9.5) = $1.7956
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Cycle A2
Bottom A2-
(Oct 19th 2023) price bottomed $0.1707
EMA cross up A2-
>8 days later
(Oct 27th 2023) EMA 22 went above the EMA 55
Peak A2-
> 147 days later
-(March 22th 2024) price peaked @ $1.2295
> 155 days from bottom a2 to peak a2
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 620.02% gain. (6.2x)
EMA cross down A2-
> 37 days later
-(April 28th 2024) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom B2-
>68 days later
-(July 5th 2024) price bottomed at 0.03788c. (-69.16% from previous peak $1.2295.)
>105 days from Peak A2 to Bottom B2.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle A2: 260 days
>260 days from Bottom A2 to Bottom B2 (entire Cycle A2)
Time of Bottom A2 to Peak A2: 155 days
>155 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak A2 to Bottom B2: 105 days
>105 days Peak A2 to Bottom B2 (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle A2 most profit:
> $0.1707 to $1.2295 6.2x (620.02%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guessing B2
Length of cycle. A:236 B:258 C:289 days A2:262 days
Avg sum/4 = 262 days (March 23rd 2025)
B-A = 22
C-B = 31
A2-C = -27 ...31-22+27= +36 >> 269+36 = 298 days (April 30th 2025)
Guessing % gained
A $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
B $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
C $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
A2 $0.1707 to $1.2295 6.2x (620.02%)
A+B+C+A2 / 4 = 3,429.79%.
B-A = 4268.05%
A-C = 1157.12%
C-A2= 1552.27%
4268.05 - 1157.12 - 1552.27 = 1558.66%
instead got the ratio of A (3329.41%)/ B (7597.46%) = 0.4382 x C (2172.29%) = 951%
instead got the ratio of B (7597.46%)/ C (2172.29%) = 3.49744 x A2 (620.02%) = 2168.48%
made more sense to compare AB to A2B2 therefore went with this >
instead got the ratio of B (7597.46%)/ A (3329.41%) = 2.28192 x A2 (620.02%) = 1414.838%
alternative average
ratio AB + CA2 / 2 = 1559.74%
Percent gain
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (1+ (1414.838/100) ) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (1+ 14.1483) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (15.1483) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (15.1483) = $5.73366
B2 predicted price = $5.73366
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If I go by how much I was wrong for A² prediction, then adjust
$1.2295 actual A² / $1.7956 A² predicted = 0.68367
X adjusted B² / $5.7336 B² predicted = 0.68367
X adjusted B² = 0.68367*$5.7336 B² predicted
X adjusted B² = $3.82564
Adjusted prediction is $3.83 for B2
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1. Bottom: price hits lowest before crossover
2. EMA cross up: ema 22 goes above ema 55 on daily timeframe
3. Peak: price peaks in between the ema cross up and downthis period,
4. EMA cross down: ema 22 goes below ema 55 on daily timeframe
5. Bottom: price hits its lowest bottom after the cross
Cycle A
Bottom A-
(Mar 13th 2020) price bottomed $0.0017
EMA cross up A-
>68 days later
(May 20th 2020) EMA 22 went above the EMA 55
Peak A-
>105 days later
-(Sep 2nd 2020) price peaked @ $0.0566
>173 days bottom to peak
EMA cross down A-
> 46 days later
-(Oct 18th 2020) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom B-
>17 days later
-(Nov 4th 2020) price bottomed at 1.262c. (-77% from previous peak $0.0566.)
>63 days from Peak A to Bottom B.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle A: 236 days
>236 days from Bottom A to Bottom B (entire Cycle A)
Time of Bottom A to Peak A: 173 days
>173 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak A to Bottom B: 63 days
>63 days Peak A to Bottom B (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle A most profit:
> $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cycle B
Bottom B-
-(Nov 4th 2020) price bottomed at $0.01262.
EMA cross up B-
>66 days later
-(Jan 9th 2021) the EMA 22 went above the EMA 55.
Peak B-
>121 days later
-(10th May 2021) price peaked $0.9588.
> 187 days from bottom b to peak b
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 7597.46% gain. (76x)
EMA cross down B-
>15 days later
-(25th May 2021) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom C-
>56 days later
-(July 20th 2021) 56 days later $0.1534 found a bottom (-84% from previous peak $0.01262)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle B: 258 days
>236 days from Bottom B to Bottom C (entire Cycle B)
Time of Bottom B to Peak B: 187 days
>187 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak B to Bottom C: 71 days
>71 days Peak B to Bottom C (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle B most profit:
> $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
Cycle A + B most profit:
> $0.0017 to $0.9588 564x (56400.00%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cycle C
Bottom C-
-(July 20th 2021) 56 days later $0.1534 found a bottom (-84%)
EMA cross up B-
>56 days later
-(Aug 14th 2021) the EMA 22 went above the EMA 55.
Peak C-
>76 days later
-(28th Oct 2021) price peaked $3.457.
> 100 days from bottom c to peak c
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 2271.44% gain. (22.7x)
EMA cross down C-
>37 days later
-(4th Dec 2021) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom D-
>100 days later
-(Mar 14th 2022) 100 days later $1.0343 found a bottom (-70%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle C: 289 days
>237 days from Bottom C to Bottom D (entire Cycle C)
Time of Bottom C to Peak C: 100 days
>100 days Bottom C to Peak C (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak C to Bottom D:
>137 days Peak C to Bottom D (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle C most profit:
> $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
Cycle A + B + C most profit:
> $0.0017 to $3.457 2033.5x (203300.52%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bear Market
Bottom Bear-
-(Nov 22nd 2022) 359 days later $0.1627 found a bottom (-95.31%)
-Ended April 29th 2023
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle D: 532 days
>532 days from Bottom C to Bottom of Bear (Entire Bear Market)
Oct 19th 2023
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guessing A2
Length of cycle. A 236 B 258 C 289 days
Avg sum/3 = 261 days (July 4th 2024)
B-A = 22
C-B = 31 ...31-22= +9 >> 289+9 = 298 days (August 11th 2024)
Guessing % gained
A $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
B $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
C $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
A+B+C / 3 = 4,366%.
B-A= 4268.05
A-C= 1157.12
4268.05 - 1157.12 = 3110.93%
instead got the ratio of A/B = 0.4382 x C = 951%
Percent gain
0.1707 up 951% = 0.1707 + (0.1707 x 9.5) = $1.7956
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cycle A2
Bottom A2-
(Oct 19th 2023) price bottomed $0.1707
EMA cross up A2-
>8 days later
(Oct 27th 2023) EMA 22 went above the EMA 55
Peak A2-
> 147 days later
-(March 22th 2024) price peaked @ $1.2295
> 155 days from bottom a2 to peak a2
>If you bought the crash and sold peak you would have 620.02% gain. (6.2x)
EMA cross down A2-
> 37 days later
-(April 28th 2024) the EMA 22 closed below the EMA 55.
Bottom B2-
>68 days later
-(July 5th 2024) price bottomed at 0.03788c. (-69.16% from previous peak $1.2295.)
>105 days from Peak A2 to Bottom B2.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time of Cycle A2: 260 days
>260 days from Bottom A2 to Bottom B2 (entire Cycle A2)
Time of Bottom A2 to Peak A2: 155 days
>155 days Bottom A to Peak A (best buy to best sell)
Time of Peak A2 to Bottom B2: 105 days
>105 days Peak A2 to Bottom B2 (best buy after peak the best sell)
Cycle A2 most profit:
> $0.1707 to $1.2295 6.2x (620.02%)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Guessing B2
Length of cycle. A:236 B:258 C:289 days A2:262 days
Avg sum/4 = 262 days (March 23rd 2025)
B-A = 22
C-B = 31
A2-C = -27 ...31-22+27= +36 >> 269+36 = 298 days (April 30th 2025)
Guessing % gained
A $0.0017 to $0.0566 33.29x (3329.41%)
B $0.01262 to $0.9588 75.97x (7597.46%)
C $0.1534 to $3.4859 22.7x (2172.29%)
A2 $0.1707 to $1.2295 6.2x (620.02%)
A+B+C+A2 / 4 = 3,429.79%.
B-A = 4268.05%
A-C = 1157.12%
C-A2= 1552.27%
4268.05 - 1157.12 - 1552.27 = 1558.66%
instead got the ratio of A (3329.41%)/ B (7597.46%) = 0.4382 x C (2172.29%) = 951%
instead got the ratio of B (7597.46%)/ C (2172.29%) = 3.49744 x A2 (620.02%) = 2168.48%
made more sense to compare AB to A2B2 therefore went with this >
instead got the ratio of B (7597.46%)/ A (3329.41%) = 2.28192 x A2 (620.02%) = 1414.838%
alternative average
ratio AB + CA2 / 2 = 1559.74%
Percent gain
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (1+ (1414.838/100) ) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (1+ 14.1483) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (15.1483) =
$0.3785 up 1414.838% = 0.3785 x (15.1483) = $5.73366
B2 predicted price = $5.73366
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If I go by how much I was wrong for A² prediction, then adjust
$1.2295 actual A² / $1.7956 A² predicted = 0.68367
X adjusted B² / $5.7336 B² predicted = 0.68367
X adjusted B² = 0.68367*$5.7336 B² predicted
X adjusted B² = $3.82564
Adjusted prediction is $3.83 for B2
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.