GBPCAD - a bit down then up
I have been benefiting from ideas that Trading View community publishes for a while and thought this is about time that I also contributed. With that in mind, I am sharing my first idea on GBPCAD.
I believe we have nearly completed the Wave 3 (red colour). Although I think it can go up slightly more to 1.8320 area (which is 0.786 extension of smaller degree wave 3 (yellow colour). I am of the view that it is unlikely to be able to go much higher than that due to serious bearish divergence on the daily RSI.
Once Wave 3 (red) is completed, it is likely to correct for the higher degree Wave 4 (red). I expect this correction to be in the same magnitude and take similar length of time as Wave 2 (red). As such I expect this correction to complete by 20 April 2018. I expect it to reverse from the trend support as indicated by Blue arrows. There was a zig-zag correction in Wave 2 and as such, I expect a more complex correction for Wave 4 (red) and this could actually take slightly longer. Therefore, 20 April 2018 is actually an optimistic estimate, in my opinion.
Weekly RSI no longer shows a divergence. As such, it is likely to go up for one more time to complete Wave 5 (red) before the trend reverses. Estimated completion of Wave 5 (red) also lines up nicely with 0.618 retrace of the Weekly down impulse.
Disclaimer: This is not an investment advice. I am simply sharing my opinion. I am also a relatively inexperienced trader and currently educating myself on various topics. Therefore, I would appreciate any constructive feedback.
I believe we have nearly completed the Wave 3 (red colour). Although I think it can go up slightly more to 1.8320 area (which is 0.786 extension of smaller degree wave 3 (yellow colour). I am of the view that it is unlikely to be able to go much higher than that due to serious bearish divergence on the daily RSI.
Once Wave 3 (red) is completed, it is likely to correct for the higher degree Wave 4 (red). I expect this correction to be in the same magnitude and take similar length of time as Wave 2 (red). As such I expect this correction to complete by 20 April 2018. I expect it to reverse from the trend support as indicated by Blue arrows. There was a zig-zag correction in Wave 2 and as such, I expect a more complex correction for Wave 4 (red) and this could actually take slightly longer. Therefore, 20 April 2018 is actually an optimistic estimate, in my opinion.
Weekly RSI no longer shows a divergence. As such, it is likely to go up for one more time to complete Wave 5 (red) before the trend reverses. Estimated completion of Wave 5 (red) also lines up nicely with 0.618 retrace of the Weekly down impulse.
Disclaimer: This is not an investment advice. I am simply sharing my opinion. I am also a relatively inexperienced trader and currently educating myself on various topics. Therefore, I would appreciate any constructive feedback.
Note
I have updated the wave count as I believe we are still in wave iii of iii. This is on the basis of the strength and speed of this move. Previously, I hadn't correctly factored in the size relationship between waves i, ii and iii (yellow).
From here I believe, we are due a small correction for wave iv (yellow), this is likely to kiss the rising trend yellow trend line from wave ii ( yellow) at around 1.8400 level. I would expect wave iii (red) to be completed at around 1.90 mark which is approximately 100% extension of wave i (red). If it only manages to reach 1.90 level, I would expect the ensuing wave v (red) to be very short lived.
This will then complete the higher degree correction of C. All thing remaining equal, the preceding bearish impulse should then continue to much lower levels as pointed by the red arrow.
Note
Correction: this is likely to kiss the rising trend yellow trend line from wave ii ( yellow) at around "1.8040" level.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.