British Pound / Japanese YenUpdated Long GBPJPY - Anticipating good Job Data
This is very simple thesis, I want to go long into the GBP expected good data. Yesterday CPI is a very good encouragement and the market should keep trending upward toward the Cash rate vote tomorrow. I missed the intial drift from Asian session. I'd wish I can get up earlier or devote more time for this but simply can't with my Full-time analyst job atm.
Sentiment: GBPJPY is half-half, a bit short bias by retail. I think they are afraid the move is over-extended since yesterday jump. Well the truth is the pair moved for a good reason and likely continue to move rather than having any major retracements.
I'm in at ~146.5, stop is below last round 1.46 (at ~1.4563) I have no particular TP as I intend to hold this all the way to Thursday. There are two high probability scenario: 1) Avg earning comes out good as expected => GBPJPY rally past but won't move much after and may even retrace in the US session, depends on the mood on JPY. 2) Data beats => the pair jump way past 1.47 and continue to head toward Pivot and Round level 1.49.
Sentiment: GBPJPY is half-half, a bit short bias by retail. I think they are afraid the move is over-extended since yesterday jump. Well the truth is the pair moved for a good reason and likely continue to move rather than having any major retracements.
I'm in at ~146.5, stop is below last round 1.46 (at ~1.4563) I have no particular TP as I intend to hold this all the way to Thursday. There are two high probability scenario: 1) Avg earning comes out good as expected => GBPJPY rally past but won't move much after and may even retrace in the US session, depends on the mood on JPY. 2) Data beats => the pair jump way past 1.47 and continue to head toward Pivot and Round level 1.49.
Note
Even though only by a small margin, retail traders are increasingly betting on weak GBPJPY => I'm really itching to bet a bit more.Note
So data came out not as good as expected and the pair dropped. It was not a complete disaster either. I am down 1/2 way to my SL and I get this is mostly because overextended Long traders got their stops whacked (myself included).Right after the news are fully released however there were no immediately sell down much further from the Pivot of 146. This gives me hope that the big boys are actually considering spreading their bets in anticipating of tomorrow cash rate decision.
What hard for me is how to manage my trade from now on. I can choose to increase it at this point but since I was too eager to add 25% to the trade at close to the original entry I'm having bigger losses than I expected. I'd rather not add to losing trade. But if I take it off right now, I may not have a better entry for tomorrow cash rate trade.
Anyway, I've decided to dig in here, I do expect the pair to hover around these levels and not taking out my SL and I'll have to "enjoy" my early involvement in the tomorrow GBP event.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.