News event for the week
- JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index at Tuesday 350am (Over)
Long-term Chart
- Major long-term trendline (Jan 23 - Current) uptrend line is still holding
- Shorter trendline: LH and LL have been set since Oct.
Technical analysis
Prices are currently in no-man's land and there's no reason to enter from a technical perspective now
- I want to enter Long positions if they reach 191-190 price range
-- Daily level SL: 188
-- Daily level TP: 195 - Price Action for entry
-- Price to hit zone, then breakout to the downside out of the zone. To take trade on the retracement candle with SL above the highs within the zone.
-- TF to view candle: H1 - And I want to enter a Short position if price reaches around 196 and does not have a strong volume breakout to the upside.
-- Daily level SL: 198 (Top of zone + Daily ATR)
-- Daily level TP: 190.6 (Major trendline level) - Price Action for entry
-- Price to hit zone then breakout to the upside of the zone. To take trade on the retracement candle with SL below the lows within the zone
-- TF to view candle: H1
Fundamental
- Divergence in monetary policies, favouring a downtrend of the GBPJPY. This is THE major driver, and until economic news changes this, I favour selling GBPJPY whenever it reaches a premium level.
- BOE expected to continue to cut interest rates due to bad economic outlook
- JPY expected to continue to hike interest rates to strengthen the yen
Overall
- If price reaches SHORT zone. I expect to hold the trade longer to take advantage of the fundamental downtrend. And I may scale into the trade if price starts a major downmove.
- If price reaches the LONG zone and Price Action permits, I expect to have a scalp of the Long position(s) to take advantage of the supply zone. I do not want to hold a Long position in GBPJPY for an extended time.
- This is under the assumption that the monetary policy divergence holds.
Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.