Long

Long at 180 handle

Updated

- Long at the big psych level
- SL to BE because if bears push it down to 180 again for the 3rd time, unlikely to hold
- would look to strategically reestablish longs all the way down to 178.2

Trade active

Crazy PA on the surprise hike.
A bit of that buy the rumour sell the news type of behaviour
But the carry trade overnight financing is just too attractive
Added small long at 181.13

Trade active

Unfortnately the long at 181.13 got stopped out at BE with the 2nd tap, just barely.
And the entry long at 181.64 did not trigger by a bee's dick

Note

- The only news I can find relating to this vicious selloff is Fra/Ger PMIs
- Seems a bit overdone tbh, against the backdrop of central bank hikes throughout the week, strong retail sales and everything else pointing to the higher for longer narrative
- didnt want to buy at 64 due to the viciousness of the selloff but stuck a $5 in the garter at 181.41

Note

- the 181.41 above was shortlived, got SLed @ BE
- Week ahead, probably watching 181.4 to 180.9 for reentry
- ForexLive makes a good point about red flag for JPY bulls, couldnt catch a bid despite Friday's broad risk off mood
- Suspect 185 handle now in sight over the next fortnight, barring any adverse news, considering the "stickiness" of recent inflation data across europe
- this idea that rate rises will cause recession seems a bit premature, when in reality might actually take the next 2-3 months before we see anything concrete
- as for BOJ intervention, USD/JPY now 143 with intervention speculated at 145, key is to pay attention to the 4 phases of BOJ rhetoric - we're at Stage 1 (search "intervention" on forexlive and look for the article from E Sheridan on USD/JPY)

Note

- I see the lastest news this morning on BOJ minutes re: 2% inflation & potential YCC reversal.
- But also see the relative weakness of that JPY bid, plus now seeing a +50% retracement of that
- to me that's a market that doesn't believe the BOJ will change anything just yet

Trade closed manually

- Manually closed. That's a 250 pip trade, and my best since returning to the markets.
- Too much going on at work and home life to have the appetite to sit through the next 3 days till that Tokyo CPI print.
- I can see that massive bid at 182.30 sitting there, probably stick a small entry there after this.
Still got entry orders set at 181.4 & 180.9 below as well

Chngster

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