im expecting a big dip then reversal at any of the marked price levels
fundamentally if i were to gauge which one id look at the following factors
GBP
M1 Money Supply: As of November 2024, the UK's M1 money supply stood at £2,221,455 million.
M2 Money Supply: In the same period, the M2 money supply was £3,067,494 million, marking an increase from £3,062,782 million in October 2024.
The modest month-over-month growth in M2 suggests a cautious approach by the Bank of England (BoE) towards monetary expansion. This restraint may indicate efforts to control inflation and maintain currency stability. However, the overall high levels of money supply reflect the substantial monetary interventions undertaken in previous years.
JPY
M1 Money Supply: In December 2024, Japan's M1 money supply reached ¥1,096,496.5 billion, up from ¥1,091,290 billion in November 2024.
M2 Money Supply: During the same period, the M2 money supply increased to ¥1,257,683.8 billion from ¥1,254,910.3 billion.
The incremental increases in both M1 and M2 indicate a steady, albeit slow, expansion of Japan's money supply. This aligns with the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) longstanding accommodative monetary policy aimed at combating deflation and stimulating economic growth.
So..
The UK's relatively stable M2 growth suggests a balanced approach, potentially leading to moderate inflation and a stable GBP. In contrast, Japan's slow money supply growth reflects its ongoing struggle with low inflation and economic stagnation, which may continue to exert downward pressure on the JPY.
Outlook
If current trends persist:
The BoE's measured monetary expansion may support the pound's stability. However, vigilance is required to manage inflationary pressures that could arise from external factors or supply chain disruptions.
The BoJ's continued accommodative stance suggests that the yen may remain weak, especially if inflation remains subdued and economic growth lags.
In short, the UK's cautious monetary policy may bolster the GBP's position, while Japan's persistent low growth and inflation challenges could keep the JPY under pressure. Monitoring these monetary indicators will be crucial for anticipating future currency movements.
now since im all for the dxy crashing i decided to factor that in
these are my takeaways
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fundamentally if i were to gauge which one id look at the following factors
GBP
M1 Money Supply: As of November 2024, the UK's M1 money supply stood at £2,221,455 million.
M2 Money Supply: In the same period, the M2 money supply was £3,067,494 million, marking an increase from £3,062,782 million in October 2024.
The modest month-over-month growth in M2 suggests a cautious approach by the Bank of England (BoE) towards monetary expansion. This restraint may indicate efforts to control inflation and maintain currency stability. However, the overall high levels of money supply reflect the substantial monetary interventions undertaken in previous years.
JPY
M1 Money Supply: In December 2024, Japan's M1 money supply reached ¥1,096,496.5 billion, up from ¥1,091,290 billion in November 2024.
M2 Money Supply: During the same period, the M2 money supply increased to ¥1,257,683.8 billion from ¥1,254,910.3 billion.
The incremental increases in both M1 and M2 indicate a steady, albeit slow, expansion of Japan's money supply. This aligns with the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) longstanding accommodative monetary policy aimed at combating deflation and stimulating economic growth.
So..
The UK's relatively stable M2 growth suggests a balanced approach, potentially leading to moderate inflation and a stable GBP. In contrast, Japan's slow money supply growth reflects its ongoing struggle with low inflation and economic stagnation, which may continue to exert downward pressure on the JPY.
Outlook
If current trends persist:
The BoE's measured monetary expansion may support the pound's stability. However, vigilance is required to manage inflationary pressures that could arise from external factors or supply chain disruptions.
The BoJ's continued accommodative stance suggests that the yen may remain weak, especially if inflation remains subdued and economic growth lags.
In short, the UK's cautious monetary policy may bolster the GBP's position, while Japan's persistent low growth and inflation challenges could keep the JPY under pressure. Monitoring these monetary indicators will be crucial for anticipating future currency movements.
now since im all for the dxy crashing i decided to factor that in
these are my takeaways
- If DXY collapses slowly, GBP and JPY both rise, but GBP/JPY stays relatively stable as usual
- If DXY collapses sharply due to a crisis, JPY outperforms massively, and GBP/JPY drops sharply
- If the BoE cuts rates aggressively, GBP weakens, while JPY gets even stronger
- If the BoJ tightens monetary policy while DXY crashes, JPY surges, and GBP/JPY could plummet below 180.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.