Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPNZD
1. Market Structure & Current Position
Current Trend: The price is moving within a well-defined ascending channel** with higher highs and higher lows.
Recent Movement :A sharp rally to the upper trendline (~2.2750), followed by a correction.
Critical Level: The price is testing mid-channel support (~2.2450), a potential decision zone.
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2. Elliott Wave Count (Detailed Breakdown)
Based on the structure, the chart exhibits a **5-wave impulse move, possibly followed by an ABC correction
Impulse Wave Structure (Main Trend)
1️⃣ **Wave 1:Strong push from 2.1850 → 2.2350 (Initiation)
2️⃣ **Wave 2: Pullback to 2.1950(Shallow retracement)
3️⃣ **Wave 3:Strong breakout, extending past 2.2750(Largest move, extended wave)
4️⃣ **Wave 4:Current correction to **2.2450 - 2.2350
5️⃣ **Wave 5 (Projected):If wave count is correct, **final push towards 2.2800 - 2.2900
🔹 Wave 3 Validation: The strongest and longest wave, confirming an Elliott impulse pattern.
🔹 Wave 4 Confirmation: Corrections usually respect the previous **Wave 1 territory, which aligns with the channel bottom (~2.2350).
Corrective Structure (If Wave 5 Fails)
Scenario A: Classic Zig-Zag Correction (ABC)
- A: Drop from 2.2750 to 2.2450
- B: Short retracement (possibly back to 2.2600)
- C: Further decline to **2.2200 - 2.1850**
Scenario B: Running Flat Correction
- Price hovers in **2.2350 - 2.2600** range before deciding direction.
3. Key Technical Levels
Bullish Case (Wave 5 Continues)
✅ Support:
2.2350 - 2.2450** (Wave 4 support, channel midline)
2.2200** (Breakdown level)
✅ Resistance Targets:
2.2750** (Previous high, key breakout level)
2.2850 - 2.2900** (Final Wave 5 extension zone)
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4. Probable Scenarios & Probability %
✅ Scenario 1: Wave 5 Continuation (60%)
- If price holds 2.2350, expect a final bullish wave toward 2.2850 - 2.2900.
- Confirmation: Strong bullish rejection at support.
⚠️ Scenario 2: ABC Correction (Bearish Pullback) (40%)
- If price **breaks 2.2350**, we could see a larger retracement to **2.2200 - 2.1850**.
- Confirmation: A **break and close below 2.2350** with bearish momentum.
5. Conclusion & Trading Strategy
📌 Bias: Bullish continuation (Wave 5) unless 2.2350 breaks.
📌 Trade Setup:
- Long entry: Buy between 2.2400 - 2.2450 with a tight stop below 2.2300.
- Short entry: If price **breaks below 2.2350, sell targeting 2.2200 - 2.1850.
📌 Final Thoughts: The next few hours** will confirm whether Wave 5 is valid or we enter a corrective phase. Monitor price action closely.
1. Market Structure & Current Position
Current Trend: The price is moving within a well-defined ascending channel** with higher highs and higher lows.
Recent Movement :A sharp rally to the upper trendline (~2.2750), followed by a correction.
Critical Level: The price is testing mid-channel support (~2.2450), a potential decision zone.
---
2. Elliott Wave Count (Detailed Breakdown)
Based on the structure, the chart exhibits a **5-wave impulse move, possibly followed by an ABC correction
Impulse Wave Structure (Main Trend)
1️⃣ **Wave 1:Strong push from 2.1850 → 2.2350 (Initiation)
2️⃣ **Wave 2: Pullback to 2.1950(Shallow retracement)
3️⃣ **Wave 3:Strong breakout, extending past 2.2750(Largest move, extended wave)
4️⃣ **Wave 4:Current correction to **2.2450 - 2.2350
5️⃣ **Wave 5 (Projected):If wave count is correct, **final push towards 2.2800 - 2.2900
🔹 Wave 3 Validation: The strongest and longest wave, confirming an Elliott impulse pattern.
🔹 Wave 4 Confirmation: Corrections usually respect the previous **Wave 1 territory, which aligns with the channel bottom (~2.2350).
Corrective Structure (If Wave 5 Fails)
Scenario A: Classic Zig-Zag Correction (ABC)
- A: Drop from 2.2750 to 2.2450
- B: Short retracement (possibly back to 2.2600)
- C: Further decline to **2.2200 - 2.1850**
Scenario B: Running Flat Correction
- Price hovers in **2.2350 - 2.2600** range before deciding direction.
3. Key Technical Levels
Bullish Case (Wave 5 Continues)
✅ Support:
2.2350 - 2.2450** (Wave 4 support, channel midline)
2.2200** (Breakdown level)
✅ Resistance Targets:
2.2750** (Previous high, key breakout level)
2.2850 - 2.2900** (Final Wave 5 extension zone)
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4. Probable Scenarios & Probability %
✅ Scenario 1: Wave 5 Continuation (60%)
- If price holds 2.2350, expect a final bullish wave toward 2.2850 - 2.2900.
- Confirmation: Strong bullish rejection at support.
⚠️ Scenario 2: ABC Correction (Bearish Pullback) (40%)
- If price **breaks 2.2350**, we could see a larger retracement to **2.2200 - 2.1850**.
- Confirmation: A **break and close below 2.2350** with bearish momentum.
5. Conclusion & Trading Strategy
📌 Bias: Bullish continuation (Wave 5) unless 2.2350 breaks.
📌 Trade Setup:
- Long entry: Buy between 2.2400 - 2.2450 with a tight stop below 2.2300.
- Short entry: If price **breaks below 2.2350, sell targeting 2.2200 - 2.1850.
📌 Final Thoughts: The next few hours** will confirm whether Wave 5 is valid or we enter a corrective phase. Monitor price action closely.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.