The GBP/USD pair has witnessed an upside breakout from the sideways channel seen on the hourly charts, ahead of the BOE minuted which are expected to show a unanimous vote in favour of maintaining the interest rates at record lows.
Slim chance of a hawkish surprise
In my opinion, the Bank of England (BOE) minutes could throw a hawkish surprise today – a vote in favour of a rate hike. I believe the BOE may have begun telegraphing a rate hike little more aggressively. This is evident from Carney’s comments last week that rates could rise at the turn of this year. So a hawkish surprise may come through the BOE minutes today.
In such a case, the GBP stands to gain across the board, especially against the low yielding European currencies and commodity currencies- AUD and NZD.
On the charts…
The post has witnessed an upside breakout from the sideways channel on the hourly. The hourly candle also closed above 1.5607 (23.6% Fib of Apr-June rally). So the gains are likely to be extended to 1.5638 (38.2% Fib of June rally). The gains could be extended even further to 1.5680-1.5690 (rising trend line extended) if the minutes provide a hawkish surprise or refrain from making comments on the strengthening GBP. On the downside, a break below 1.56 (channel support), could push the cable lower to 1.5571 (hourly 200-MA).
Slim chance of a hawkish surprise
In my opinion, the Bank of England (BOE) minutes could throw a hawkish surprise today – a vote in favour of a rate hike. I believe the BOE may have begun telegraphing a rate hike little more aggressively. This is evident from Carney’s comments last week that rates could rise at the turn of this year. So a hawkish surprise may come through the BOE minutes today.
In such a case, the GBP stands to gain across the board, especially against the low yielding European currencies and commodity currencies- AUD and NZD.
On the charts…
The post has witnessed an upside breakout from the sideways channel on the hourly. The hourly candle also closed above 1.5607 (23.6% Fib of Apr-June rally). So the gains are likely to be extended to 1.5638 (38.2% Fib of June rally). The gains could be extended even further to 1.5680-1.5690 (rising trend line extended) if the minutes provide a hawkish surprise or refrain from making comments on the strengthening GBP. On the downside, a break below 1.56 (channel support), could push the cable lower to 1.5571 (hourly 200-MA).
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.