GBPUSD: Market Outlook, Plan and Probabilities Future Price Move
Updated
U.K.’s first GDP reading, which is expected at 0.0% after a 0.4% reading in Q3 2019.
If weak expectations then we could see GBP/USD drop below its 1.2875 weekly lows (weekly pivot s1 level) and maybe even make a run for the lower s2 or beyond. This is still possible given Cable’s daily ATR and its move so far today.
If today’s data dump allows the BOE to avoid the dove camp for a while longer, then Cable could revisit its 1.2970 broken support before submitting to other economic catalysts.
Speaking of, Fed’s Powell will talk economy in D.C. during the U.S. session. He will likely repeat the Fed’s growth optimism and concerns over low inflation but traders will also want to hear about the impact of Coronavirus and maybe his reaction to Trump’s latest calls for lower interest rates.
If weak expectations then we could see GBP/USD drop below its 1.2875 weekly lows (weekly pivot s1 level) and maybe even make a run for the lower s2 or beyond. This is still possible given Cable’s daily ATR and its move so far today.
If today’s data dump allows the BOE to avoid the dove camp for a while longer, then Cable could revisit its 1.2970 broken support before submitting to other economic catalysts.
Speaking of, Fed’s Powell will talk economy in D.C. during the U.S. session. He will likely repeat the Fed’s growth optimism and concerns over low inflation but traders will also want to hear about the impact of Coronavirus and maybe his reaction to Trump’s latest calls for lower interest rates.
Note
UK December monthly GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expectedNote
UK December visible trade balance £0.8 billion vs -£10.0 billion expected: Surplus ( the Dec month result was far better than any past month reports)Note
The construction report was fine comparing to the past. Manufacturing & Industrial Production weren't much changed comparing to the past but slight growth, either way, lower then what economists expected so overall it was mixed reports but the one where our eye was monthly GDP report was far better than previous data.Note
fundamentally, the data earlier doesn't seem to do much to give us much direction as it alludes to the switch in sentiment from the draggy October and November to the more upbeat December following the UK election results.That has already carried over into the economic outlook this year but there is still the worrying part about inflation and post-Brexit trade uncertainty. Those are the more pressing issues for the pound rather than decent data releases from a while back. Author: Justin Low
Note
BOE Governor Carney’s speech (Feb. 11, 3:35 pm GMT)Note
Breakout from the ceiling 1.2970 (Past support turn resistance level)
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