Looking at the support & resistance zones, We're currently at a key level for a great entry short at the top of the range the currency has been following for quite a while across the daily chart and 4 hr. Looking to go down 2 levels for about 130 pip gain, with a hedge order 25 pips above incase we break the range and make a run for it. Overall, looking for the range behavior to continue.
Trade active
Lookig for price to move back down to form an "M" Pattern, finishing somewhere around the 1.205 levels (big round number target)Note
The current uptrend is showing signs of some divergence where seller's are starting to come in, we have the back and forth around the key level, but staying below, which influenced my decision for entry short hereNote
Trend line on the 1 hr chart is a little off, mechanichal divergence is following through on the lower time frames, entry looking good, nice rejections off the levelNote
More follow through of divergence, with a very nice Head & Shoulders Pattern on the 15 minute Chart, Much Clearer on the 5 minuteNote
Should see some rejection down soon I would expect. Once price reaches the next lower level, I'll move a stop into play ahead of the breakeven mark and allow the price to continue to the next level down.Note
More mechanical divergence through some tight consolidation, strong show of sellers now, should see some follow-through down, or hidden buyers running in to to keep holding it up....Note
Liquidity sweep right over the multi tap top, do we finally carry through?Trade closed: stop reached
Hedged out, sellers finally ran out of energy and got over runTrade active
Didn't know I could reactivate 🧐🎯 1.21150 for both sell orders. We have a very clear 4hr resistance zone just above where price is now, around the 122.95, right at the big round number 123. Most logical target is the clear resistance zone that was was flat for quite some time before, and a possible rebound level at the target prices zone.
Double hedge orders set for 123.150, to take the zone into account with a little larger than wanted risk, but the hedge orders can travel quite a ways to the next level above, and give a lot of room to work out the other hedges. Just manipulation of the break even until we satisfy the condition, and take profits along the way
Note
Only about 30 pips of range above the current price, and I'm expecting a bit of volatility from that area, as I suspect a lot of sellers will be waiting for that 4hr zoneNote
Overall, the 4hr zone also lines up on a 1.68 Fibonacci level, so those traders should be considering a take profits there, further helping out the shrot trades. Not increasing positions, as the additional risk is essentially equal to adding a position from this spot, not trying to raise the pip value just yet...Note
Even if we don't make it to target, we're looking at two large groups of traders that worst case should at least help the situation back to in the money without much further input from here, other than some patience. May not reach the 4 hour level until after market open for a new day, but once we get there, I'm expecting a solid push down from the levelNote
If we do get the strong push, it could cause a domino effect of stop hits and increasing seller interest/short bias scalps, and so on that could finish off the target. GBP likes to "swing wide" I notice, so I would think this is a higher probability if a quick short startsNote
If price does not move up into the 4hr level first before coming down, I will close at break even, as this will make me very suspicious of a build up to break that 4 hr level soon down the road....Note
Reason: price continues up, without the pullback, it will have less buy interest, and will therefore be weak and easy to push down. If it drops, it will make the pullback I was looking for earlier, and also will generate more buy interest, this giving more oommf to the momentum, and thus reducing the chance the level will holdNote
Little bit of a downward overall curve, I think the pullback is the likely outcome considering this, into the 1.22250 level, a minor support level from the pattern just belowNote
Hedge buy lowered to 1.22795, if it doesn't go down much more it will lock in the position in a small drawdown should it decide to start running back up before the reaching the target to break evenNote
Not reducing size to take a tiny profit on the top position, as I want to use the pip value to my advantage if we break the 4hr level, and keep the break even point for the position as a whole higher upNote
If we charge into the 4 hr level from this point, it's from a 38% Fibonacci retracement, and in most cases this means a strong impulse continuation back into the original direction with a lot of buyers on board. If we don't come much lower, that 4 hr level doesn't stand much of a chance from hereNote
Getting a slight inverse head & shoulders at the this level, further influencing the conclusion of breaking that 4 hr level from hereNote
1.22680 hedge, we go up a little to break the near resistance just above pattern, I bet we go up a lotTrade closed: target reached
Close to target and starting to stall, position closed losing only 5 pips for the buys, total gain through this long grueling trde was 36 pips
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.