Someone noticed the other day (User "salvanost") the fact that gold is making 5 bear MONTHLY candles in a row.
So I wanted to know how strange that event is, and I checked and did some numbers and observations:
1) I just counted 5 TIMES in the pass that gold made 5 candles or more (6 is the max I found). Never found 7 candles in a row.
2) So we are at the door (three trading days to close the month) to the 6th time we find 5 or more monthly candles red in a row.
3) In 4 of those five times, there was a rally afterwards (or almosts afterwards). Only in 1996 gold continued falling.
4) Now some maths...(with the permission of truly mathematicians, which I am not)
- There are right now 571 monthly candles since the start of the chart.
- We can make 566 groups of six consecutive candles, then.
- We have found this event in 6 times (counting the current one)...so probability says: 6/566 = 1% is the probability of this to happen.
- And 7 has never happen which doesn't mean it can't. In fact, as times goes on, probability says that event rises its probabitity to happen.
- If next candle is red (September), betting a green one (7th) is statistically a winner bet. October "should" be white.
We could be in a similiar pattern as 2018 with gold moving in a range that could be bottoming..and gold ready to move up.
or
We could be in a similar pattern as 1996 with gold ready to move down.
And according to history... 0,20% (1/5 x 1%) of the output was a bearish continuation.
So what could we expect: light or darkness? Green or Red Candles?
Nadadora
Luz Oscuridad luz
Deshazte de mi.
youtube.com/watch?v=_LHAn0QS8FM
Mi position at the moment is long in miners. So I expect a rally in short. That is what "maths" are telling me.
But, until chart says something different, main monthly trend is bear for me.
So I wanted to know how strange that event is, and I checked and did some numbers and observations:
1) I just counted 5 TIMES in the pass that gold made 5 candles or more (6 is the max I found). Never found 7 candles in a row.
2) So we are at the door (three trading days to close the month) to the 6th time we find 5 or more monthly candles red in a row.
3) In 4 of those five times, there was a rally afterwards (or almosts afterwards). Only in 1996 gold continued falling.
4) Now some maths...(with the permission of truly mathematicians, which I am not)
- There are right now 571 monthly candles since the start of the chart.
- We can make 566 groups of six consecutive candles, then.
- We have found this event in 6 times (counting the current one)...so probability says: 6/566 = 1% is the probability of this to happen.
- And 7 has never happen which doesn't mean it can't. In fact, as times goes on, probability says that event rises its probabitity to happen.
- If next candle is red (September), betting a green one (7th) is statistically a winner bet. October "should" be white.
We could be in a similiar pattern as 2018 with gold moving in a range that could be bottoming..and gold ready to move up.
or
We could be in a similar pattern as 1996 with gold ready to move down.
And according to history... 0,20% (1/5 x 1%) of the output was a bearish continuation.
So what could we expect: light or darkness? Green or Red Candles?
Nadadora
Luz Oscuridad luz
Deshazte de mi.
youtube.com/watch?v=_LHAn0QS8FM
Mi position at the moment is long in miners. So I expect a rally in short. That is what "maths" are telling me.
But, until chart says something different, main monthly trend is bear for me.
Note
Note
Missed one important: the top of 2012, with a similar situation as current one, that preceded a serious fall. So odds are 4 times rally, and 2 times fall. A believe we are close to that 2012 than to a upwards continuation.
Note
But....The bullish case is there in gold noves (as i expect) to the 1860$ and holds there monthly....Then, new all time hights
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.