GLD is the high volume EFT
that is tracking the gold bullrun which started two weeks ago on July 3rd after
a downtrend for two months starting on May 2nd. This is not a leveraged ETF
as so a bit less volatile than JNUG or GDXU. On the 2H chart, I have added a
VWAP band line setup anchored into the pivot high.
On my analysis:
1. GLD is ascending through VWAP band lines in a VWAP breakout.
2. Volume is steady
3. The Price Volume Trend Oscillator went from a diminishing negative/red histogram
into green on July 5th.
4. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines crossed while under the histogram reversing a descent on July 17th and marking the end of a minor correction of the uptrend then confirmed by those
lines crossing the zero-line the following day.
I conclude that GLD is set up for a long trade. While others might simply take a trade of
stocks I will use call options to take a long position. My target is $190 between the
second and third positive standard deviations of the mean VWAP. I will purchase 50
options contracts for about $37 each expiring August 4th. I will hold all of them until
July 27th and liquidate half of them at the high of day on that Thursday expecting
Friday to be a down day. The remaining 25 contracts will be sold at the rate of
6 contracts per day until the overall position is closed. Overall, I expect to realize
200% in profits over the 12-13 trading days in the trade. I plan for a 15% stop loss and
expect the trade to be above break-even with the first stop loss advance which I expect
will be on Friday.
a downtrend for two months starting on May 2nd. This is not a leveraged ETF
as so a bit less volatile than JNUG or GDXU. On the 2H chart, I have added a
VWAP band line setup anchored into the pivot high.
On my analysis:
1. GLD is ascending through VWAP band lines in a VWAP breakout.
2. Volume is steady
3. The Price Volume Trend Oscillator went from a diminishing negative/red histogram
into green on July 5th.
4. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines crossed while under the histogram reversing a descent on July 17th and marking the end of a minor correction of the uptrend then confirmed by those
lines crossing the zero-line the following day.
I conclude that GLD is set up for a long trade. While others might simply take a trade of
stocks I will use call options to take a long position. My target is $190 between the
second and third positive standard deviations of the mean VWAP. I will purchase 50
options contracts for about $37 each expiring August 4th. I will hold all of them until
July 27th and liquidate half of them at the high of day on that Thursday expecting
Friday to be a down day. The remaining 25 contracts will be sold at the rate of
6 contracts per day until the overall position is closed. Overall, I expect to realize
200% in profits over the 12-13 trading days in the trade. I plan for a 15% stop loss and
expect the trade to be above break-even with the first stop loss advance which I expect
will be on Friday.
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