Surfing GLD: Seasonal & Fractals

Updated

Purpose:
Looking to accumulate physical Gold for long term hold

Strategy:
Fractals and Seasonals pointing to bottom in Nov/Dec 2023

Trade active

Monitoring is active.

Note

Gold:

Technicals:
1. Fractals pointing to a downward trend until end of 2023
2. It is now even more clear that the peak was at

Fundamentals:
1. Hot jobs report and resolution of debt ceiling (goes to Biden now to sign off before 5 June, in 2 days) leading to big dump in safe haven

Analysis:
1. Price wave going as planned.
2. Will monitor and update periodically

Note

: $1936.21

Technicals:
1. A clear wedge has formed and potential drop down to
2. MACD made only 2 days in positive and seems extremely weak now in negative

Fundamentals:
1. Hawkish Fed, even though it halted rate increases in Jun, looking at 2 more

Analysis:
1. Price wave going as planned
2. Will monitor and update periodically

Note

: $1920.26

Technicals:
1. Wedge broken
2. MACD is now negative
3. Still hovering above 1900/oz round number

Fundamentals:
1. China appears to be selling Gold to shore up its yuan
2. China economy in very weak posiition

Analysis:
1. Wave going as planned
2. Monitor if a move below $1900 happens, $1800 will come up very quickly.

Note

: $1910.14

Technicals:
1. Price broke $1900 momentarily

Analysis:
1. Expecting retest of $1900 floor and keeping pushing with a sudden break down to $1800
2. Keep monitoring

Note

: $1909.13

News:
1. Surge in China’s Demand for Gold Is Slowing as Economy Stumbles
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-20/surge-in-chinese-demand-for-gold-is-slowing-as-economy-stumbles
2. India And China Make Up Nearly 50% Of Global Gold Demand
oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/India-And-China-Make-Up-Nearly-50-Of-Global-Gold-Demand.html

Analysis:
1. is falling as is supported. Thesis that china is selling its gold reserves.
2. Keep monitoring

Note

: $1955.33

// Change in Fundamental Idea //

Technicals:
1. We had a pump with the market believing that rate hikes are over
2. I don't think we are going to get to by the end of 2023 as expected, especially if there are no hikes on 20 Sept
3. 1 week MACD will need to be watched at again for a potential entry next month (Sept)

Analysis:
1. I would like to see a good bottoming of 1wk MACD and decide on an entry in late Sept or early Oct (instead of Dec 2023 as previously predicted)

Note

: $1921.53

Technicals:
1. Still looking good on the 1wk MACD as it approaches below 0

Analysis:
1. No change in strategy
2. Continue to monitor the surf for the entry in late Sept / early Oct

Note

: $1913.04

Just a frivolous bored comment as I restlessly and impatiently wait for the bottom for GOLD. This wait is just frustrating like this. Another 2 months at least.

Chart:
t.ly/BU5Fz

Note

: $1892.85

Technicals:
1. And so we have it. Breaking below $1900 - finally!
2. Breaking also below the last low of $1893

Fundamentals:
1. Honestly, nothing. The fed minutes said what it should say but the market took it negatively.

Analysis:
1. Awaiting $1800.

Chart:
t.ly/Gnh8p

Note

:

Technicals:
1. The trajectory is actually not as bearish as 3 August 2020 and 14 March 2022
2. In fact, gold price is trying to stay up, and not making although still making lower lows

Fundamentals:
1. Even if Fed halts, it will take a recession or crash to bring rates down
2. But it will certainly lighten bear pressure on gold

Analysis:
1. I am very keen to trade (buy), but the plan is still Dec 2023 + break of 1 week MACD

Chart:
t.ly/sTkQc

Note

:

Commentary:
1. Still loitering going nowhere for the past month

Action:
1. And for me, still waiting for the 1 week MACD to show the buy signal.

Note

:

Commentary:
1. Sometimes, nothing happens. Sometimes everything happens.
2. We broke the recent low and back on track towards the bottom
3. Its still much higher than the 1800/oz I was expecting at this time

Action:
1. Twiddling fingers, we need to wait a bit, still planning the Dec 2023 entry and waiting a more yummy price.
2. Will be back.

Note

:

Commentary:
1. Its been a long while since I made my first comment back on 24 May
2. Sometimes, nothing happens. Sometimes everything happens!

Action:
1. Hold the horses. The bun isn't yet cooked.

Note

:

Action:
1. Watch the price action as it prints 1800. The support/resistance goes back to feb 23 and aug 22.

WJ.Y

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