Biased analysis, currently long other Gold plays, because I think it may break the current resistance from the 2011 and 2012 highs based on a classic Bubble Chart Pattern, check it out on a monthly scale. Long based on the belief that regression to the mean has been occurring since Jan 2016 and still has room to move up through the resistance. Determined mean based on available data from the closing prices between 9/16/2016 (x=2976) to 9/16/2004 (x=0) to get a linear equation to represent the mean value, y=0.3298x+613.2, x=2976 current mean value of 1594.685 for today. Obviously Mean would be lower if all data were available to the early 2000s, since it is not to me at least currently, holding the belief that the multi year resistance will be broken, with an big move up when/if it does would outweigh a downward pace. Currently reward seems greater than risk if this occurs. Additionally VIX has been going up, with market uncertainty overall, and the FED rate hike looming in the near future. Belief that news of FED inaction will continue to support a long position.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.