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Against the backdrop of rising market demand for risk aversion and the difficulty in changing the weak dollar, as New York futures gold broke through the $3,100/ounce mark after the month-end, the international spot gold price also rose to $3,080/ounce in one fell swoop on the 28th, further approaching the $3,100 integer mark. Although different institutions have different judgments on the core driver of the rise in gold prices, this does not change the fact that institutions continue to express optimism about the prospects of gold in the context of gold prices setting a new record high for the 16th time this year. Regardless of the reason, institutions continue to be bullish on gold.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group said in their latest report that due to the inflow of ETFs and the central bank's demand for gold purchases exceeding expectations, the gold price forecast for the end of 2025 was raised from $3,100 to $3,300, and the forecast range was adjusted to $3,250-3,520.
Analysts at Bank of America also regard the demand for gold purchases in the context of the diversification of central bank reserves as a key driver of the rise in gold prices. Analysts at the agency said, "A balanced U.S. current account may require reduced capital inflows in the future. If this is accompanied by a shift from 'America First' to 'America Isolation', central banks may further reduce their dollar holdings, and gold is a beneficiary."
Other institutions see the weakening of the dollar and lower interest rates that the Trump administration is trying to promote as the "perfect environment" for gold to rise.
Although in the view of analysts, Trump's tariffs are expected to continue to push up inflation in the short term, which will force the Federal Reserve to maintain a neutral monetary policy stance and keep the dollar high, Tom Bruce, macro investment strategist at Tanglewood Total Wealth Management, said in an interview with the media, "The Mar-a-Lago Agreement calls for a weaker dollar and lower interest rates-this is the perfect environment for gold. For now, I am optimistic about gold just from the global situation."
Analysts at Societe Generale also said that last week the agency reduced its exposure to U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar in favor of the euro and the yen. At the same time, gold holdings will be maintained at 7% of the portfolio. The bank also expects the average gold price in the fourth quarter to be about $3,300 per ounce. "Gold will remain strong against the backdrop of a major policy response to the US government's redefinition of geopolitics," said analysts at the agency.
In addition, speculation that the US economic outlook "may not be as good as some hard data show" also constitutes a reason for institutions to be bullish on gold.
The United States is still facing a situation of "strong hard data and weak soft data". The final value of US GDP in the fourth quarter was revised up to 2.4%, slightly higher than the previously announced 2.3%. In the US unemployment data for the week, the number of people who continued to receive unemployment benefits in Washington, DC rose to the highest level since 2021. In the short term, investors are still concerned about the potential "stagflation" in the future of the United States. In the future, "stagflation" may be the baseline scenario for the US economy. Under the "stagflation" scenario, gold prices are expected to continue to be strong, and at the same time, it is necessary to be vigilant about the high-level correction and fluctuation of gold prices.
It is worth noting that no matter what factors become the key driver of gold's medium- and long-term strength, the safe-haven demand brought about by increased trade uncertainty in the short term is still the key to gold prices being easy to rise and difficult to fall.
On the 26th, US President Trump signed a notice at the White House, announcing a 25% tariff on imported cars, which will take effect on April 2. In addition, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that "reciprocal tariffs" may be levied as early as April 2, and the resulting trade tensions have led to a continued rise in market risk aversion. This not only brought continued safe-haven buying to the precious metals market, but also partially weakened the impact of the mild stabilization of the US dollar.
The US tariff policy continues to weigh on investor sentiment, which is obvious against the backdrop of a generally weak stock market and is also seen as a key factor in driving safe-haven funds to precious metals. In addition, the market expects that Trump's aggressive trade policy will weaken the US economy and force the Federal Reserve to resume its rate cut cycle soon, which provides additional support for the yield-free gold price.
I hope David’s article can bring you something to gain, and you will have smooth sailing in your next investment. David has been focusing on the market for more than 20 years. He has rich market experience and stable operations, so that your funds can be reasonably controlled and profitable. Investors are welcome to come and communicate.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD
Against the backdrop of rising market demand for risk aversion and the difficulty in changing the weak dollar, as New York futures gold broke through the $3,100/ounce mark after the month-end, the international spot gold price also rose to $3,080/ounce in one fell swoop on the 28th, further approaching the $3,100 integer mark. Although different institutions have different judgments on the core driver of the rise in gold prices, this does not change the fact that institutions continue to express optimism about the prospects of gold in the context of gold prices setting a new record high for the 16th time this year. Regardless of the reason, institutions continue to be bullish on gold.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group said in their latest report that due to the inflow of ETFs and the central bank's demand for gold purchases exceeding expectations, the gold price forecast for the end of 2025 was raised from $3,100 to $3,300, and the forecast range was adjusted to $3,250-3,520.
Analysts at Bank of America also regard the demand for gold purchases in the context of the diversification of central bank reserves as a key driver of the rise in gold prices. Analysts at the agency said, "A balanced U.S. current account may require reduced capital inflows in the future. If this is accompanied by a shift from 'America First' to 'America Isolation', central banks may further reduce their dollar holdings, and gold is a beneficiary."
Other institutions see the weakening of the dollar and lower interest rates that the Trump administration is trying to promote as the "perfect environment" for gold to rise.
Although in the view of analysts, Trump's tariffs are expected to continue to push up inflation in the short term, which will force the Federal Reserve to maintain a neutral monetary policy stance and keep the dollar high, Tom Bruce, macro investment strategist at Tanglewood Total Wealth Management, said in an interview with the media, "The Mar-a-Lago Agreement calls for a weaker dollar and lower interest rates-this is the perfect environment for gold. For now, I am optimistic about gold just from the global situation."
Analysts at Societe Generale also said that last week the agency reduced its exposure to U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar in favor of the euro and the yen. At the same time, gold holdings will be maintained at 7% of the portfolio. The bank also expects the average gold price in the fourth quarter to be about $3,300 per ounce. "Gold will remain strong against the backdrop of a major policy response to the US government's redefinition of geopolitics," said analysts at the agency.
In addition, speculation that the US economic outlook "may not be as good as some hard data show" also constitutes a reason for institutions to be bullish on gold.
The United States is still facing a situation of "strong hard data and weak soft data". The final value of US GDP in the fourth quarter was revised up to 2.4%, slightly higher than the previously announced 2.3%. In the US unemployment data for the week, the number of people who continued to receive unemployment benefits in Washington, DC rose to the highest level since 2021. In the short term, investors are still concerned about the potential "stagflation" in the future of the United States. In the future, "stagflation" may be the baseline scenario for the US economy. Under the "stagflation" scenario, gold prices are expected to continue to be strong, and at the same time, it is necessary to be vigilant about the high-level correction and fluctuation of gold prices.
It is worth noting that no matter what factors become the key driver of gold's medium- and long-term strength, the safe-haven demand brought about by increased trade uncertainty in the short term is still the key to gold prices being easy to rise and difficult to fall.
On the 26th, US President Trump signed a notice at the White House, announcing a 25% tariff on imported cars, which will take effect on April 2. In addition, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that "reciprocal tariffs" may be levied as early as April 2, and the resulting trade tensions have led to a continued rise in market risk aversion. This not only brought continued safe-haven buying to the precious metals market, but also partially weakened the impact of the mild stabilization of the US dollar.
The US tariff policy continues to weigh on investor sentiment, which is obvious against the backdrop of a generally weak stock market and is also seen as a key factor in driving safe-haven funds to precious metals. In addition, the market expects that Trump's aggressive trade policy will weaken the US economy and force the Federal Reserve to resume its rate cut cycle soon, which provides additional support for the yield-free gold price.
I hope David’s article can bring you something to gain, and you will have smooth sailing in your next investment. David has been focusing on the market for more than 20 years. He has rich market experience and stable operations, so that your funds can be reasonably controlled and profitable. Investors are welcome to come and communicate.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.