Gold (XAU/USD) Long Setup: First Swing of the Year Amid NFP Week
I initiated a long position on Gold (XAU/USD) following a retracement to the 0.6 Fibonacci level on the 8-hour timeframe. This setup marks the first swing trade on Gold this year, targeting the $2,680-$2,687 price zone. Gold opened the year on a bullish note, aligning with mid-range technicals. This trade reflects a mid-term outlook, aiming to capitalize on potential momentum driven by this week’s major macroeconomic events, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release and the FOMC’s intervention.
Fundamentals:
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone, suggesting a slowdown in interest rate cuts for 2025, is providing upward pressure on US Treasury bond yields. However, these signals are driving flows away from non-yielding assets like Gold. Alongside geopolitical risks and trade war fears, this creates a complex backdrop for Gold. Additionally, the pullback in the US Dollar from its November highs is offering some support for the precious metal. Traders will closely monitor Friday’s NFP report and the December FOMC meeting minutes for further direction.
Key bullish themes for metals:
• Rising inflation expectations and the Fed’s pause in rate hikes support Gold.
• China’s green initiatives boost demand for metals.
• Interest rate cuts could provide further upside for Gold.
• Stagflation fears increase Gold’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset.
Technicals:
• Entry: Positioned after a 0.6 Fibonacci retracement.
• Target Zones: $2,680 - $2,687.
• Timeframe: 8-hour chart, aligning with the mid-range strategy.
• Outlook: Maintaining a close watch on price action, especially with upcoming macro releases that could create volatility.
Let’s keep the momentum strong and pay attention to market signals. Stay focused, and as always, pay yourself!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Fundamentals:
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone, suggesting a slowdown in interest rate cuts for 2025, is providing upward pressure on US Treasury bond yields. However, these signals are driving flows away from non-yielding assets like Gold. Alongside geopolitical risks and trade war fears, this creates a complex backdrop for Gold. Additionally, the pullback in the US Dollar from its November highs is offering some support for the precious metal. Traders will closely monitor Friday’s NFP report and the December FOMC meeting minutes for further direction.
Key bullish themes for metals:
• Rising inflation expectations and the Fed’s pause in rate hikes support Gold.
• China’s green initiatives boost demand for metals.
• Interest rate cuts could provide further upside for Gold.
• Stagflation fears increase Gold’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset.
Technicals:
• Entry: Positioned after a 0.6 Fibonacci retracement.
• Target Zones: $2,680 - $2,687.
• Timeframe: 8-hour chart, aligning with the mid-range strategy.
• Outlook: Maintaining a close watch on price action, especially with upcoming macro releases that could create volatility.
Let’s keep the momentum strong and pay attention to market signals. Stay focused, and as always, pay yourself!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Note
The position remains steady above our entry point as the first 8H candle of the session closes with indecision, reflecting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. On the order flow side, we observe a bullish divergence, hinting at potential upside momentum. However, it’s crucial to note that the outcome of this divergence is unpredictable.
Patience and disciplined risk management are key. Let’s continue to monitor closely and let the market reveal its next move. Stay focused, and as always, pay yourself!
Note
Congratulations to everyone who took this trade! The first target has been reached, and profits are locked in. Stop-loss has been raised, transforming this into a risk-free trade moving forward.
Enjoy your well-earned profits and stay focused for the next opportunities. Let’s continue to trade smart and maximize gains.
Trade active
The gold position has gained 2% profit so far, marking another opportunity to take partial profits. I’m raising the stop-loss to the $2,650 area to secure gains while allowing room for further upside.
This trade showcases remarkable momentum, reinforcing the importance of disciplined trade management.
Trade closed manually
The gold trade has been closed at $2,680, securing a solid 2.16% gain. This decision was made ahead of the NFP release to avoid unnecessary exposure to market volatility.
Key Lesson: Protecting profits is paramount, especially when significant economic events are on the horizon.
Enjoy the well-earned profits, and have a great weekend. Pay yourself – you deserve it!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.