In the European session, the spot gold market continued its recent strong pattern, with prices rising rapidly in just one hour to a high of $3,055.63, just one step away from the historical high of $3,057.21 set on March 20. The current market is active, with both long and short sides engaged in a fierce game around key resistance levels. The dual drive of technical and fundamental factors has significantly amplified the volatility of gold prices.
From the perspective of driving logic, risk aversion is still the dominant force. The latest remarks of the Trump administration on auto tariffs continue to ferment, and policy uncertainty has led to rising market concerns about the outlook for the global economy, and funds have accelerated into the gold market to seek safe havens. At the same time, the continued inflow of institutional funds through gold ETFs has provided solid support for prices. Combined with the potential easing expectations of the Fed's policy path, the gold market is in a bullish window period of "time and place".
Multi-dimensional market analysis
(I) Fundamentals: Resonance of safe-haven demand and capital inflows
Policy uncertainty has boosted safe-haven buying. According to Refinitiv, Trump's recent auto tariff announcement caused sharp market fluctuations. His remarks implied the possibility of further tariffs on the European Union and Canada, which caused the market to be confused about the details of the reciprocal tariffs to be implemented in early April. Although some countries or industries may be exempted, the ambiguity of the timing and scope of the policy implementation has significantly amplified the market's cautious sentiment. Historical experience shows that such policy vacuum periods are often accompanied by strong performance of safe-haven assets, and gold, as a traditional "safe haven", naturally becomes the first choice for funds.
Institutional capital inflows build the cornerstone of prices. According to the latest data, the cumulative net inflow of gold ETFs in the first quarter of 2025 has reached 155 tons, and the total holdings have climbed to a peak since September 2023. In the previous trading day alone, the scale of a single-day increase of 23 tons set a record since 2022. Well-known institutional analysts pointed out that the unexpected growth of central bank gold purchase demand and the continued inflow of ETF funds together constitute the "two-wheel drive" of gold's medium- and long-term bullishness. If this trend continues, it will provide sufficient liquidity support for gold prices to break through historical highs.
The Fed's policy expectations are fraught with uncertainty. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged last week, its statement on the slowdown in the process of inflation decline has attracted market attention. The PCE data to be released on Friday will be a key indicator to verify the expectation of a rate cut. If the data is mild, the market's bets on loose policies may heat up, further consolidating the attractiveness of gold; on the contrary, if the data is stronger than expected, it may trigger short-term selling pressure.
(II) Technical aspects: The moving average system and the battle for key positions reveal the direction
Trend structure and moving average system verification
From the 4-hour chart, EMA20 (currently $3022.28) and EMA50 (3019.07) show a typical long arrangement, and the price continues to run above the moving average and the slope diverges upward, confirming that the medium-term upward trend has not changed. It is worth noting that the price rebounded quickly after a brief retracement to the $3021-3022 support area during the Asian session, indicating that the moving average system has a significant support effect on bulls, and short-term retracements often become new entry opportunities.
Momentum indicators and overbought risk balance
The 60-minute chart shows that short-term indicators such as RSI14 (54.92) and RSI11 (54.87) are near the 50 neutral area, indicating that the current upward momentum has not yet entered the overbought range, and the price trend is relatively healthy. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that if the 4-hour chart RSI further climbs above 70, it may trigger technical correction pressure. The current market is in the "momentum accumulation" stage, and there is no obvious top divergence signal, and the probability of trend continuation is high.
Fibonacci and psychological barriers
On the 1-hour chart, after the price retreated from the historical high of $3057.21 to $2999.40, the key Fibonacci retracement level and the moving average formed a technical resonance:
0.382 retracement level ($3034.87): It constitutes short-term resistance with EMA50 ($3019.96), but the price has broken through this position during the day, indicating that bulls are dominant;
0.618 retracement level ($3021.16): It almost coincides with EMA20 ($3022.28), forming the first support area below. If the price falls back to this area and stabilizes during the European and American sessions, the upward trend is expected to continue; on the contrary, if it effectively falls below, it may trigger a technical sell-off and test the psychological barrier of $3,000.
Future trend outlook: Break through the previous high or technical correction?
(I) Core conditions for continued upward movement
If the market's risk aversion continues to heat up, coupled with the strong inflow of ETF funds, the gold price is expected to consolidate the foundation in the $3021 support area and hit the historical high of $3057 again. Once this resistance is broken, the upper target will directly point to the $3100 integer mark, and the technical form will form a strong structure of "higher highs", attracting more trend traders to enter the market and further opening up the upward space.
(II) Potential triggers for short-term adjustments
The current price is close to the historical high, and some long profit-taking pressure is gradually accumulating. If the PCE data released on Friday is stronger than expected, or the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, it may become the fuse for triggering a correction. The key support area is between $3000 and $2999, which is not only the previous low, but also the psychological defense line of the market. If the price loses this area, it may trigger a deeper technical adjustment and test the support level of $2950 downward.
(III) Comprehensive judgment
The current gold market is in a critical stage of "trend continuation but need to be vigilant about corrections." Fundamental risk aversion demand and policy easing expectations support prices, while the battle for key technical positions will determine the short-term direction. Investors need to focus on the following signals:
The effectiveness of the $3,021 support: This area is the long-term defense line, and the trend will continue if it stabilizes;
PCE data and market reaction: The data results will affect the Fed's policy expectations, and thus affect the short-term fluctuations of gold;
Changes in ETF fund flows: Continued increases will consolidate bullish confidence, and vice versa may weaken the upward momentum.
The gold market still needs to experience a full game of long and short forces before breaking through the historical high, but the medium- and long-term upward logic has not undergone a fundamental reversal. Closely follow the key signals on the market to capture the window for trend initiation.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD
From the perspective of driving logic, risk aversion is still the dominant force. The latest remarks of the Trump administration on auto tariffs continue to ferment, and policy uncertainty has led to rising market concerns about the outlook for the global economy, and funds have accelerated into the gold market to seek safe havens. At the same time, the continued inflow of institutional funds through gold ETFs has provided solid support for prices. Combined with the potential easing expectations of the Fed's policy path, the gold market is in a bullish window period of "time and place".
Multi-dimensional market analysis
(I) Fundamentals: Resonance of safe-haven demand and capital inflows
Policy uncertainty has boosted safe-haven buying. According to Refinitiv, Trump's recent auto tariff announcement caused sharp market fluctuations. His remarks implied the possibility of further tariffs on the European Union and Canada, which caused the market to be confused about the details of the reciprocal tariffs to be implemented in early April. Although some countries or industries may be exempted, the ambiguity of the timing and scope of the policy implementation has significantly amplified the market's cautious sentiment. Historical experience shows that such policy vacuum periods are often accompanied by strong performance of safe-haven assets, and gold, as a traditional "safe haven", naturally becomes the first choice for funds.
Institutional capital inflows build the cornerstone of prices. According to the latest data, the cumulative net inflow of gold ETFs in the first quarter of 2025 has reached 155 tons, and the total holdings have climbed to a peak since September 2023. In the previous trading day alone, the scale of a single-day increase of 23 tons set a record since 2022. Well-known institutional analysts pointed out that the unexpected growth of central bank gold purchase demand and the continued inflow of ETF funds together constitute the "two-wheel drive" of gold's medium- and long-term bullishness. If this trend continues, it will provide sufficient liquidity support for gold prices to break through historical highs.
The Fed's policy expectations are fraught with uncertainty. Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged last week, its statement on the slowdown in the process of inflation decline has attracted market attention. The PCE data to be released on Friday will be a key indicator to verify the expectation of a rate cut. If the data is mild, the market's bets on loose policies may heat up, further consolidating the attractiveness of gold; on the contrary, if the data is stronger than expected, it may trigger short-term selling pressure.
(II) Technical aspects: The moving average system and the battle for key positions reveal the direction
Trend structure and moving average system verification
From the 4-hour chart, EMA20 (currently $3022.28) and EMA50 (3019.07) show a typical long arrangement, and the price continues to run above the moving average and the slope diverges upward, confirming that the medium-term upward trend has not changed. It is worth noting that the price rebounded quickly after a brief retracement to the $3021-3022 support area during the Asian session, indicating that the moving average system has a significant support effect on bulls, and short-term retracements often become new entry opportunities.
Momentum indicators and overbought risk balance
The 60-minute chart shows that short-term indicators such as RSI14 (54.92) and RSI11 (54.87) are near the 50 neutral area, indicating that the current upward momentum has not yet entered the overbought range, and the price trend is relatively healthy. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that if the 4-hour chart RSI further climbs above 70, it may trigger technical correction pressure. The current market is in the "momentum accumulation" stage, and there is no obvious top divergence signal, and the probability of trend continuation is high.
Fibonacci and psychological barriers
On the 1-hour chart, after the price retreated from the historical high of $3057.21 to $2999.40, the key Fibonacci retracement level and the moving average formed a technical resonance:
0.382 retracement level ($3034.87): It constitutes short-term resistance with EMA50 ($3019.96), but the price has broken through this position during the day, indicating that bulls are dominant;
0.618 retracement level ($3021.16): It almost coincides with EMA20 ($3022.28), forming the first support area below. If the price falls back to this area and stabilizes during the European and American sessions, the upward trend is expected to continue; on the contrary, if it effectively falls below, it may trigger a technical sell-off and test the psychological barrier of $3,000.
Future trend outlook: Break through the previous high or technical correction?
(I) Core conditions for continued upward movement
If the market's risk aversion continues to heat up, coupled with the strong inflow of ETF funds, the gold price is expected to consolidate the foundation in the $3021 support area and hit the historical high of $3057 again. Once this resistance is broken, the upper target will directly point to the $3100 integer mark, and the technical form will form a strong structure of "higher highs", attracting more trend traders to enter the market and further opening up the upward space.
(II) Potential triggers for short-term adjustments
The current price is close to the historical high, and some long profit-taking pressure is gradually accumulating. If the PCE data released on Friday is stronger than expected, or the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, it may become the fuse for triggering a correction. The key support area is between $3000 and $2999, which is not only the previous low, but also the psychological defense line of the market. If the price loses this area, it may trigger a deeper technical adjustment and test the support level of $2950 downward.
(III) Comprehensive judgment
The current gold market is in a critical stage of "trend continuation but need to be vigilant about corrections." Fundamental risk aversion demand and policy easing expectations support prices, while the battle for key technical positions will determine the short-term direction. Investors need to focus on the following signals:
The effectiveness of the $3,021 support: This area is the long-term defense line, and the trend will continue if it stabilizes;
PCE data and market reaction: The data results will affect the Fed's policy expectations, and thus affect the short-term fluctuations of gold;
Changes in ETF fund flows: Continued increases will consolidate bullish confidence, and vice versa may weaken the upward momentum.
The gold market still needs to experience a full game of long and short forces before breaking through the historical high, but the medium- and long-term upward logic has not undergone a fundamental reversal. Closely follow the key signals on the market to capture the window for trend initiation.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.