Gold price today: many new fluctuations

Updated

Looking at the broader context, McIntyre said that investors appear to be underestimating the risk as deficits from Western nations continue to grow. McIntyr's warning comes as data from the US Treasury Department shows the US deficit has increased by $1 trillion in the past five weeks since Congress passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling.

McIntyre said that the central bank's demand for gold is a sign that governments are taking steps to reduce the risk of facing a potential global public debt crisis. He added that it makes sense to own some gold in this environment.

Talking about the Fed's monetary policy, the expert said that, even if the interest rate hike in July is not the last, the tightening cycle is close enough to the end. With large debt levels and a shrinking money supply, the Fed cannot raise interest rates any higher, he said. This is a favorable environment for this precious metal.

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Specifically, the interest rate will be increased by 0.25% by the end of July. Therefore, the gold price has been given a strong growth momentum.

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Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco, said that it is certain that it can increase to $ 2,000 / ounce (VND 57.5 million / tael) if the Fed can make a forecast about the market.

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Portfolio managers note that investors should pay less attention to short-term volatility and more to long-term trends.

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“Gold could move firmly towards the $2,000/oz mark if further economic data creates conditions for the Fed to stop raising interest rates altogether after the July hike,” said Jim Wyckoff.

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However, the expert also warned that if the Fed does not act as expected by the market, the price of gold could fall to $ 1,900/oz.

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XAUUSD SELL zone 1985 - 1987
🔸SL 1990
🔹TP 1970

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Personal comments NOVA:
The bad news for the USD directly influenced the gold price to increase to the highest level in the past few weeks. The price is moving towards the 1990 resistance area, if the bad news for the dollar continues, the price may surpass 2000 in the following week.

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Besides, US government bond yields fell for two consecutive sessions.

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Gold price is always sensitive to US interest rate adjustments. Jim Wyckoff, market analyst at Kitco, said that the price of gold could rise to $2,000 an ounce if the Fed stops its rate hike cycle after another hike this month.

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Many investors expect that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to raise interest rates one last time in its meeting on July 26, with an increase of 0.25 basis points, then will keep maintain this interest rate until inflation falls to the target level of 2%.

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According to Kitco, it is likely that the Fed is about to end the cycle of tightening monetary policy because inflation seems to be under control. Accordingly, the USD will enter a bearish phase and gold will often move in the opposite direction.

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Accordingly, the IMF believes that global economic activity is slowing down, especially in the manufacturing sector

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Inflation tends to decrease, but basically remains at a high level. This could cause central banks to continue stretching, or raise interest rates more to curb inflation. Rising interest rates will be a challenge for economic growth.

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Experts said that the weakening economy will increase risks for investment cash flow. This is a positive support factor for gold when investors have to seek shelter in cash flow.

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Not a lot of key US macroeconomic data is out this week, but Thursday's initial jobless claims weekly data still holds investors' attention. .

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The precious metal initially rallied significantly on Tuesday as data showed U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in June, suggesting consumer inflation has slowed. may be less severe than anticipated.

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Any sign of a pause in the Fed's rate hike cycle is good news for non-yielding assets like gold, which has been hit by rate hikes over the past year.

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Dovish signals from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England also boosted gold's appeal, as well as increasing safe-haven demand amid worsening economic growth in China.

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On Wall Street (USA), the Dowjones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes had significant gains for the third consecutive day, stimulating investors to put capital into stocks.

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USD rose against most major currencies, especially GBP (inflation fell below 8% for the first time in over a year), AUD and JPY. The DXY index is back above 100, however, there was a retracement from the top during the session.

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In the trading session of July 19, VN-Index ended a series of 8 consecutive gaining sessions. At the end of the session, the VN-Index dropped 1.11 points to 1,172.98 points. HNX-Index increased 0.51 points to 231.47 points. UPCoM-Index increased 0.11 points to 87.14 points.

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