Spot gold fell nearly 1% on Friday, closing at 3316.26. Although the price of gold finally closed above 3300 this week, the trend of gold prices this week can be described as ups and downs. Intraday transactions have fluctuated by nearly $100 many times. Under the situation of trade tensions, the market has a high risk aversion sentiment, pushing the price of gold above 3500.
After Trump's unilateral statement on tariffs eased, coupled with the 3500 mark, investors closed their long positions, and the lowest price of gold fell to around 3260 during the week. At the moment when tariffs are deadlocked, Trump's remarks on tariffs have not reduced the risk of the market, but increased the uncertainty of the market and the volatility of gold prices. So far this year, gold has risen by more than 25%.
"The apparent easing of tariffs has had a negative impact on gold prices, but so far we have not seen large-scale liquidation of positions," said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. "However, we know they have continued to buy on dips over the past few trading sessions, so we think gold can resume its upward trajectory."
International Monetary Fund (IMF) member countries said in a statement that the world economy is at a "critical moment" as trade tensions intensify. The "Chair's Statement" of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMF), the IMF's top advisory body, also "welcomed the continued efforts to end wars and conflicts." The communique drafted by the chairman, Saudi Arabian Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, noted: "The world economy is at a critical juncture, and trade tensions have suddenly escalated after years of trade concerns, exacerbating uncertainty, market volatility and risks to economic growth and financial stability."
Trump's multiple shifts in his rhetoric against Powell this week are also a major factor driving the sharp fluctuations in gold prices. U.S. President Trump said on Monday that the U.S. economy may slow unless interest rates are immediately lowered, and once again criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Powell said interest rates should not be cut until it is clearer that Trump's tariff plans will not lead to a sustained surge in inflation.
Trump posted on "Truth Social": "With costs trending so nicely downward, as I predict, inflation is highly unlikely, but a slowdown is possible, unless 'Mr. Too Late', the big loser, cuts rates now."
The comments, coupled with the Trump administration's deliberate and unintentional pressure on the Fed chairman, have led to lower stocks and higher bond yields, as investors and analysts ponder the consequences if Trump stirs up a fight over the Fed's monetary policy independence and tries to fire Powell before the end of his term, which is just over a year away.
Markets are concerned that asset prices will be hit hard if U.S. President Trump tries to fire Fed Chairman Powell, undermining confidence in the Fed's ability to fight inflation and independence.
Elliot Dornbusch, chief investment officer at CV Advisors, said: "If Powell steps down, the market will almost certainly interpret it as a signal of inflation, which could push up long-term interest rates and weaken the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency."
But US President Trump said on Tuesday that he had no plans to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but said he wanted to cut interest rates, "I hope to see him be more proactive in lowering interest rates." Market concerns eased for this, but by Wednesday, Trump's remarks changed again, saying that he had not called Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but added that he might call.
The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and the president of the European Central Bank supported Powell and stressed that the central bank must remain independent. When asked about US President Trump's attack on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Tuesday, Gulansha, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stressed the importance of maintaining the independence of the central bank to maintain its credibility in fighting inflation.
Gulansha said that central banks are facing a delicate moment in managing inflation, especially in countries like the United States, where Trump's tariffs on imported goods are expected to stimulate inflation.
"The key is to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored and that everyone has confidence that the central bank will take the necessary actions to move inflation back to the central bank's target in an orderly manner," he said. He said the central bank has the tools to achieve this goal, including interest rate tools, insurance and management policies, but its credibility plays a central role.
"So the central bank needs to maintain credibility, and part of that credibility is based on the independence of the central bank," Gulensha told reporters on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings. "So from that perspective, it's very important to maintain independence."
ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed her support for Powell in an interview with CNBC, saying: "We are all used to political pressure in one way or another. But as I said, I have great respect for the work he does, his loyalty to his work, and his commitment to fulfilling his mission as diligently and rigorously as possible. For him, I think I'm sure, as for me, the mission is our compass. We have to fulfill the mission."
When asked whether the White House's attempt to remove Powell would pose a major risk to the market, Lagarde said, "I will not comment on the market's reaction to hypotheticals, which I hope will not become possible."
According to people familiar with the matter, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell used the global finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting to emphasize that central banks must be free from political interference so that they can focus on keeping inflation stable and achieving high employment. Powell spoke impassionedly on Friday to finance ministers and central bank governors at the International Monetary Fund, the people said. The meeting was closed-door. Powell's speech drew applause several times, followed by equally passionate remarks from other officials at the meeting.
Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt topped the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Fed's latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey of financial risks since Trump returned to the White House.
73% of respondents said global trade risks were their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents said overall policy uncertainty was the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar also rose on the list of concerns.
Earlier this week, investors pulled $1.27 billion from the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, the largest single-day outflow since 2011. At the same time, gold prices hit an all-time high above $3,500, suggesting there may be some profit-taking. Similar outflows in 2011 coincided with gold's last super cycle peak, marking a long period of consolidation that was not broken out until 2020. But there is no guarantee that this will be a turning point, and there are still many positive factors at play, including trade uncertainty, safe-haven demand, central bank demand, and Wall Street's calls for further increases in spot gold prices.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD
After Trump's unilateral statement on tariffs eased, coupled with the 3500 mark, investors closed their long positions, and the lowest price of gold fell to around 3260 during the week. At the moment when tariffs are deadlocked, Trump's remarks on tariffs have not reduced the risk of the market, but increased the uncertainty of the market and the volatility of gold prices. So far this year, gold has risen by more than 25%.
"The apparent easing of tariffs has had a negative impact on gold prices, but so far we have not seen large-scale liquidation of positions," said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. "However, we know they have continued to buy on dips over the past few trading sessions, so we think gold can resume its upward trajectory."
International Monetary Fund (IMF) member countries said in a statement that the world economy is at a "critical moment" as trade tensions intensify. The "Chair's Statement" of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMF), the IMF's top advisory body, also "welcomed the continued efforts to end wars and conflicts." The communique drafted by the chairman, Saudi Arabian Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, noted: "The world economy is at a critical juncture, and trade tensions have suddenly escalated after years of trade concerns, exacerbating uncertainty, market volatility and risks to economic growth and financial stability."
Trump's multiple shifts in his rhetoric against Powell this week are also a major factor driving the sharp fluctuations in gold prices. U.S. President Trump said on Monday that the U.S. economy may slow unless interest rates are immediately lowered, and once again criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Powell said interest rates should not be cut until it is clearer that Trump's tariff plans will not lead to a sustained surge in inflation.
Trump posted on "Truth Social": "With costs trending so nicely downward, as I predict, inflation is highly unlikely, but a slowdown is possible, unless 'Mr. Too Late', the big loser, cuts rates now."
The comments, coupled with the Trump administration's deliberate and unintentional pressure on the Fed chairman, have led to lower stocks and higher bond yields, as investors and analysts ponder the consequences if Trump stirs up a fight over the Fed's monetary policy independence and tries to fire Powell before the end of his term, which is just over a year away.
Markets are concerned that asset prices will be hit hard if U.S. President Trump tries to fire Fed Chairman Powell, undermining confidence in the Fed's ability to fight inflation and independence.
Elliot Dornbusch, chief investment officer at CV Advisors, said: "If Powell steps down, the market will almost certainly interpret it as a signal of inflation, which could push up long-term interest rates and weaken the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency."
But US President Trump said on Tuesday that he had no plans to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but said he wanted to cut interest rates, "I hope to see him be more proactive in lowering interest rates." Market concerns eased for this, but by Wednesday, Trump's remarks changed again, saying that he had not called Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but added that he might call.
The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and the president of the European Central Bank supported Powell and stressed that the central bank must remain independent. When asked about US President Trump's attack on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Tuesday, Gulansha, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stressed the importance of maintaining the independence of the central bank to maintain its credibility in fighting inflation.
Gulansha said that central banks are facing a delicate moment in managing inflation, especially in countries like the United States, where Trump's tariffs on imported goods are expected to stimulate inflation.
"The key is to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored and that everyone has confidence that the central bank will take the necessary actions to move inflation back to the central bank's target in an orderly manner," he said. He said the central bank has the tools to achieve this goal, including interest rate tools, insurance and management policies, but its credibility plays a central role.
"So the central bank needs to maintain credibility, and part of that credibility is based on the independence of the central bank," Gulensha told reporters on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings. "So from that perspective, it's very important to maintain independence."
ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed her support for Powell in an interview with CNBC, saying: "We are all used to political pressure in one way or another. But as I said, I have great respect for the work he does, his loyalty to his work, and his commitment to fulfilling his mission as diligently and rigorously as possible. For him, I think I'm sure, as for me, the mission is our compass. We have to fulfill the mission."
When asked whether the White House's attempt to remove Powell would pose a major risk to the market, Lagarde said, "I will not comment on the market's reaction to hypotheticals, which I hope will not become possible."
According to people familiar with the matter, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell used the global finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting to emphasize that central banks must be free from political interference so that they can focus on keeping inflation stable and achieving high employment. Powell spoke impassionedly on Friday to finance ministers and central bank governors at the International Monetary Fund, the people said. The meeting was closed-door. Powell's speech drew applause several times, followed by equally passionate remarks from other officials at the meeting.
Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt topped the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Fed's latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey of financial risks since Trump returned to the White House.
73% of respondents said global trade risks were their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents said overall policy uncertainty was the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar also rose on the list of concerns.
Earlier this week, investors pulled $1.27 billion from the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, the largest single-day outflow since 2011. At the same time, gold prices hit an all-time high above $3,500, suggesting there may be some profit-taking. Similar outflows in 2011 coincided with gold's last super cycle peak, marking a long period of consolidation that was not broken out until 2020. But there is no guarantee that this will be a turning point, and there are still many positive factors at play, including trade uncertainty, safe-haven demand, central bank demand, and Wall Street's calls for further increases in spot gold prices.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD 
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Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.