Gold is still very attractive to investors

Updated

World gold fell slightly in response to newly released US data showing that the labor market witnessed an uptrend. Specifically, the number of workers applying for unemployment benefits for the first time continued to decline. The number of weekly jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 228,000, the Labor Department said, down from last week's unverified estimate of 237,000. Economists expect jobless claims to rise to 239,000.

Precious metals were also under pressure as the dollar rose. Recorded at 9:20 am on July 21, the US Dollar Index measures the volatility of the greenback with 6 key currencies at 100,495 points.

Despite the drop in prices, precious metals are still at a two-month high. Many analysts believe that gold receives support when the market expects next week will be the last interest rate hike of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) of the monetary tightening cycle.

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For now, the market seems secure with a 25 basis point gain at next week's policy meeting. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 99.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's policymaking body.

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Economists expect jobless claims to rise to 239,000.

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Expectations of a pause have hurt the dollar in recent weeks, while benefiting the gold market, as the interest rate outlook weakens.

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Many analysts say that gold is gaining in price as the market expects next week to be the last rate hike of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) of the monetary tightening cycle.

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Some forecasters say that this could be the beginning of a rally to $2,000/ounce of the precious metal

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However, gold is forecasted to be difficult to break through in the context of China's slow economic growth.

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In the second quarter of 2023, China recorded GDP growth of 6.3%, lower than the expectation of 6.9%.

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China's economic slowdown may lead to a decline in the country's demand for gold.

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In addition, the rise of the US stock market also reduced the cash flow into gold. Gold is very sensitive to a rise in US interest rates, as it increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.

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Positive information from the labor market made investors return to take profit in gold. They believe that, when interest rates increase, the dollar will strengthen, making the opportunity cost of holding gold increase.

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Jim Wyckoff, market analyst, predicts that gold prices could rise to $2,000 an ounce if the Fed stops its rate-raising cycle after another hike this month.

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Technically, the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Price is in a 3 week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

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The bears' next near-term downside downside objective is to push futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $1,900.6 an ounce.

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The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said the manufacturing sector remains in trouble. The outlook for production and business in July is not very positive. The gold market did not have a strong reaction to this disappointing economic data.

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The labor market recovered strongly as the number of workers applying for unemployment benefits for the first time continued to decline. The number of weekly jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 228,000, the Labor Department said.

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