On Monday (April 28), spot gold prices (XAU/USD) remained weak during the European trading session, with prices approaching the key support area of $3265-3260. Signs of easing global trade relations and a slight rebound in the US dollar have suppressed gold prices. In addition, the decline in gold consumption in some economies in the first quarter of 2025 has also become another factor suppressing precious metals.
Fundamental analysis
Trade relations between the United States and some economies have shown signs of easing. However, frequent changes in Trump's position and concerns about a global recession continue to support demand for safe-haven gold.
The dollar maintained its rebound momentum last week, but the market expected the Federal Reserve to resume the interest rate cut cycle in June and cut interest rates by one percentage point in 2025, limiting the dollar's upside. In addition, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and geopolitical risks remain, providing support for precious metals.
This week, the market will focus on the release of important US economic data, including the JOLTS job vacancies report on Tuesday, US personal consumption expenditures on Wednesday, and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. These data may provide more clues to the Fed's policy outlook and bring important momentum to gold.
Technical analyst interpretation:
From the daily chart, gold prices challenged last week's low of $3,260 early on Monday, and gold prices showed weakness as correction pressure re-emerged at the beginning of this week. The market continues to re-price ahead of the high-impact US economic data to be released later this week.
From a technical perspective, gold prices are in a correction phase below the historical high of $3,499.83. The current price fluctuates around $3,280, not far from the important support area of $3,265-3,260. In the short term, gold prices have formed a consolidation range, with upper resistance at $3,350 and lower support at $3,225.
The indicator shows that the MACD value is 4.88, indicating that the medium-term momentum is still biased towards bulls. The RSI indicator is at 58.64, in the neutral zone, with no obvious overbought or oversold signals. The ATR indicator shows that market volatility remains at a high level, with a current reading of 87.93.
From the trend line analysis, the gold price is still in a strong upward channel. Since it has been effectively supported after multiple backtests, this trend line has strong reliability. Therefore, the recent pullback can be regarded as a healthy technical correction rather than a signal of trend reversal.
Market sentiment observation
Current market sentiment is in a cautious wait-and-see state. On the one hand, signs of easing global trade relations have triggered the withdrawal of some safe-haven funds; on the other hand, the continued geopolitical risks and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut are still supporting the bullish position of gold.
The market is highly sensitive to the upcoming US economic data, especially GDP and non-farm payrolls, which may become a key trigger for the gold price trend in the short term.
Institutional investors still maintain a long-term bullish position on gold. The data that the holdings of gold ETFs in some economies increased by 327.73% year-on-year shows that although physical gold consumption has declined, investment demand remains strong.
Outlook for the future market
Bull outlook: If the US GDP data shows negative growth, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in June will increase significantly, which may rekindle the upward momentum of gold. In this case, gold prices are expected to break through the $3,350 resistance level and retest the all-time high of $3,499.83. Factors supporting gold prices include: expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, ongoing geopolitical risks, and investors' concerns about a recession.
Short outlook: If U.S. economic data is stronger than expected, the Federal Reserve may postpone rate cuts, and the U.S. dollar index is expected to strengthen further. In this case, gold may fall below the key support of $3,260, with the next target at $3,260-3,225. More importantly, if the $3,225 support is effectively broken, it may trigger a larger technical sell-off, pushing gold prices to the $2,930 area.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD
Fundamental analysis
Trade relations between the United States and some economies have shown signs of easing. However, frequent changes in Trump's position and concerns about a global recession continue to support demand for safe-haven gold.
The dollar maintained its rebound momentum last week, but the market expected the Federal Reserve to resume the interest rate cut cycle in June and cut interest rates by one percentage point in 2025, limiting the dollar's upside. In addition, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and geopolitical risks remain, providing support for precious metals.
This week, the market will focus on the release of important US economic data, including the JOLTS job vacancies report on Tuesday, US personal consumption expenditures on Wednesday, and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. These data may provide more clues to the Fed's policy outlook and bring important momentum to gold.
Technical analyst interpretation:
From the daily chart, gold prices challenged last week's low of $3,260 early on Monday, and gold prices showed weakness as correction pressure re-emerged at the beginning of this week. The market continues to re-price ahead of the high-impact US economic data to be released later this week.
From a technical perspective, gold prices are in a correction phase below the historical high of $3,499.83. The current price fluctuates around $3,280, not far from the important support area of $3,265-3,260. In the short term, gold prices have formed a consolidation range, with upper resistance at $3,350 and lower support at $3,225.
The indicator shows that the MACD value is 4.88, indicating that the medium-term momentum is still biased towards bulls. The RSI indicator is at 58.64, in the neutral zone, with no obvious overbought or oversold signals. The ATR indicator shows that market volatility remains at a high level, with a current reading of 87.93.
From the trend line analysis, the gold price is still in a strong upward channel. Since it has been effectively supported after multiple backtests, this trend line has strong reliability. Therefore, the recent pullback can be regarded as a healthy technical correction rather than a signal of trend reversal.
Market sentiment observation
Current market sentiment is in a cautious wait-and-see state. On the one hand, signs of easing global trade relations have triggered the withdrawal of some safe-haven funds; on the other hand, the continued geopolitical risks and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut are still supporting the bullish position of gold.
The market is highly sensitive to the upcoming US economic data, especially GDP and non-farm payrolls, which may become a key trigger for the gold price trend in the short term.
Institutional investors still maintain a long-term bullish position on gold. The data that the holdings of gold ETFs in some economies increased by 327.73% year-on-year shows that although physical gold consumption has declined, investment demand remains strong.
Outlook for the future market
Bull outlook: If the US GDP data shows negative growth, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in June will increase significantly, which may rekindle the upward momentum of gold. In this case, gold prices are expected to break through the $3,350 resistance level and retest the all-time high of $3,499.83. Factors supporting gold prices include: expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, ongoing geopolitical risks, and investors' concerns about a recession.
Short outlook: If U.S. economic data is stronger than expected, the Federal Reserve may postpone rate cuts, and the U.S. dollar index is expected to strengthen further. In this case, gold may fall below the key support of $3,260, with the next target at $3,260-3,225. More importantly, if the $3,225 support is effectively broken, it may trigger a larger technical sell-off, pushing gold prices to the $2,930 area.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD GOLD 
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.