Current Market Structure Based on Elliott Wave Theory
Higher Timeframe Structure (Red Waves)
Gold has completed its higher-degree Wave 3 and is now expected to enter Wave 4, which is a corrective wave.
A corrective move in Wave 4 typically retraces between 23.6% to 38.2% of Wave 3.
The correction may take a zigzag (ABC), flat, or triangle formation before resuming the Wave 5 uptrend.
Intermediate Timeframe Structure (Purple Waves)
The internal 5-wave structure within Wave 3 (purple count) is fully completed.
This suggests a high probability of an impending correction, which aligns with the higher-degree Wave 4 correction.
Negative Divergence on AO Indicator
The momentum histogram at the bottom shows negative divergence (blue trendline).
Price made a higher high, but momentum did not confirm this move.
This divergence suggests weakening bullish momentum, increasing the probability of a short-term pullback.
Expected Price Movement
Primary Expectation: Gold is expected to move down into Wave 4 correction, potentially finding support around $2,950 - $2,900.
Alternatives:
If a shallow correction occurs, the price may hold around $2,980 - $3,000 before resuming an uptrend.
If a deep correction occurs, we may see levels around $2,850 before a final Wave 5 rally.
Disclaimer
Elliott Wave analysis is a probabilistic method and not a guaranteed forecast.
The expected price movements are based on historical wave patterns and technical indicators, but external market forces (news, fundamentals, economic events) can alter the structure.
Traders should use this analysis in conjunction with other risk management tools and consult financial experts before making trading decisions.
Higher Timeframe Structure (Red Waves)
Gold has completed its higher-degree Wave 3 and is now expected to enter Wave 4, which is a corrective wave.
A corrective move in Wave 4 typically retraces between 23.6% to 38.2% of Wave 3.
The correction may take a zigzag (ABC), flat, or triangle formation before resuming the Wave 5 uptrend.
Intermediate Timeframe Structure (Purple Waves)
The internal 5-wave structure within Wave 3 (purple count) is fully completed.
This suggests a high probability of an impending correction, which aligns with the higher-degree Wave 4 correction.
Negative Divergence on AO Indicator
The momentum histogram at the bottom shows negative divergence (blue trendline).
Price made a higher high, but momentum did not confirm this move.
This divergence suggests weakening bullish momentum, increasing the probability of a short-term pullback.
Expected Price Movement
Primary Expectation: Gold is expected to move down into Wave 4 correction, potentially finding support around $2,950 - $2,900.
Alternatives:
If a shallow correction occurs, the price may hold around $2,980 - $3,000 before resuming an uptrend.
If a deep correction occurs, we may see levels around $2,850 before a final Wave 5 rally.
Disclaimer
Elliott Wave analysis is a probabilistic method and not a guaranteed forecast.
The expected price movements are based on historical wave patterns and technical indicators, but external market forces (news, fundamentals, economic events) can alter the structure.
Traders should use this analysis in conjunction with other risk management tools and consult financial experts before making trading decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.