1. Historical Pattern Repeating?
✅ Symmetry Between 2021-2022 & 2024-2025
• Both price structures show an initial sharp rally, followed by a head-and-shoulders-type decline, then an extended bearish wave lower.
• In 2022, IWM broke its long-term trendline (yellow) and crashed into a lower range.
• Now in 2025, IWM is showing the same breakdown pattern below that same yellow trendline, suggesting another leg down.
✅ Fractal Pattern Match
• The zigzag pattern (white lines) from 2021-2022 matches closely to the current market structure.
• If this fractal pattern repeats, IWM could be heading for another prolonged decline toward $180 or lower.
✅ Major Resistance Held Strong
• The yellow downward-sloping trendline acted as resistance in both 2021 & now in 2025.
• This rejection in 2025 adds to the bearish probability of history repeating itself.
⸻
2. Technical Indicators Confirm Bearish Bias
📉 Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator)
• Currently oversold (~23.29), but no bullish reversal yet.
• This suggests that momentum is still to the downside with no sign of a bounce.
📉 MACD (Trend & Momentum)
• Bearish crossover confirmed, with the MACD histogram turning increasingly negative.
• This reinforces that downward momentum is strong, aligning with the 2021 crash pattern.
📉 Moving Averages Acting as Resistance
• The 200-day EMA (purple line) was broken & rejected, which is a strong bearish signal.
• This rejection mirrors the 2021 rejection, which led to a deep sell-off.
⸻
3. Price Targets & Potential Moves
If IWM follows the 2021 fractal pattern, here’s where it could go:
🔴 Bearish Targets (If Breakdown Continues)
• First Target: $190.00 → Minor support zone.
• Second Target: $180.00 → Key historical support.
• Final Target: $160.00 → Full fractal breakdown completion.
🟢 Bullish Reversal (Invalidation Point)
• If IWM reclaims $204-$210, it could invalidate the pattern and start a recovery.
• Breaking above the yellow trendline (~$210.85) would signal a bullish shift.
⸻
4. How to Trade This Setup?
🔻 Bearish Trade Ideas (If IWM Stays Below $198.75 & Breaks $198.10)
1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy IWM $195 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Target: $190.00
• Stop-Loss: If IWM reclaims $200.
2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play)
• Buy IWM $195 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell IWM $185 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if IWM closes below $185.
3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell IWM $205 Call
• Buy IWM $210 Call
• Profit if IWM stays below $205.
🟢 Bullish Trade (If IWM Reclaims $204 & Breaks Above $210.85)
• Buy IWM $210 Call (Exp. 3/14) → Target $217+
⸻
5. Conclusion – Is IWM Repeating the 2021 Crash?
✅ Yes, the fractal pattern suggests history is repeating.
✅ Downtrend confirmed, rejection at key resistance, and bearish indicators align.
✅ Watch for a break below $198.10 for further downside to $180-$160.
✅ Symmetry Between 2021-2022 & 2024-2025
• Both price structures show an initial sharp rally, followed by a head-and-shoulders-type decline, then an extended bearish wave lower.
• In 2022, IWM broke its long-term trendline (yellow) and crashed into a lower range.
• Now in 2025, IWM is showing the same breakdown pattern below that same yellow trendline, suggesting another leg down.
✅ Fractal Pattern Match
• The zigzag pattern (white lines) from 2021-2022 matches closely to the current market structure.
• If this fractal pattern repeats, IWM could be heading for another prolonged decline toward $180 or lower.
✅ Major Resistance Held Strong
• The yellow downward-sloping trendline acted as resistance in both 2021 & now in 2025.
• This rejection in 2025 adds to the bearish probability of history repeating itself.
⸻
2. Technical Indicators Confirm Bearish Bias
📉 Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator)
• Currently oversold (~23.29), but no bullish reversal yet.
• This suggests that momentum is still to the downside with no sign of a bounce.
📉 MACD (Trend & Momentum)
• Bearish crossover confirmed, with the MACD histogram turning increasingly negative.
• This reinforces that downward momentum is strong, aligning with the 2021 crash pattern.
📉 Moving Averages Acting as Resistance
• The 200-day EMA (purple line) was broken & rejected, which is a strong bearish signal.
• This rejection mirrors the 2021 rejection, which led to a deep sell-off.
⸻
3. Price Targets & Potential Moves
If IWM follows the 2021 fractal pattern, here’s where it could go:
🔴 Bearish Targets (If Breakdown Continues)
• First Target: $190.00 → Minor support zone.
• Second Target: $180.00 → Key historical support.
• Final Target: $160.00 → Full fractal breakdown completion.
🟢 Bullish Reversal (Invalidation Point)
• If IWM reclaims $204-$210, it could invalidate the pattern and start a recovery.
• Breaking above the yellow trendline (~$210.85) would signal a bullish shift.
⸻
4. How to Trade This Setup?
🔻 Bearish Trade Ideas (If IWM Stays Below $198.75 & Breaks $198.10)
1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy IWM $195 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Target: $190.00
• Stop-Loss: If IWM reclaims $200.
2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play)
• Buy IWM $195 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell IWM $185 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if IWM closes below $185.
3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell IWM $205 Call
• Buy IWM $210 Call
• Profit if IWM stays below $205.
🟢 Bullish Trade (If IWM Reclaims $204 & Breaks Above $210.85)
• Buy IWM $210 Call (Exp. 3/14) → Target $217+
⸻
5. Conclusion – Is IWM Repeating the 2021 Crash?
✅ Yes, the fractal pattern suggests history is repeating.
✅ Downtrend confirmed, rejection at key resistance, and bearish indicators align.
✅ Watch for a break below $198.10 for further downside to $180-$160.
As always, please let me know if you see something I didn't catch.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
As always, please let me know if you see something I didn't catch.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.