IXIC Opinion 8th October 2021
Updated
Note that my opinion may be biased as I've been shorting the market indices since the beginning of September. Also note, that I don't have a crystal ball so these opinions may be wrong.
I have been bearish for quite some time and am still leaning towards bearish movements. Just briefly summarising the reasons: Treasury yields, inflationary pressure, the Techincal over-extensions on the higher timeframes, overvaluing and optimism of the general market, and the overall high influx of retail investors in the market. All of these reasons combined with intuition and observation over the past couple of years of trading have molded my current perspective on the current price action.
Daily graph:
* The bounce up can just be a reaction to price and oscillators reaching oversold regions, so dip buyers have bought up these levels for profits.
* There is now a bearish confirmation between the price action and oscillator in the troughs of both.
* There was also a bearish divergence between the tops of the price action and oscillators (I have pointed this out before which is why I was bearish in my last post)
* In the most recent trading session (7th October 2021) the candle rejected the 50 EMA moving average on the daily and closed with a weak bullish candle. Suggesting that bearish influence is stronger.
* This rise-up is done so on low volume, further supporting the idea that this rally is irrational and can break back down easily.
4-hour graph:
* Rejection of both 50 EMA and 100 EMA moving averages. Suggesting bearish momentum.
* Death cross between the 50 EMA and 100 EMA. Also suggesting bearish momentum.
* Bearish confirmation in the most recent peaks and troughs between the price action and the oscillators, further supporting the idea of bearish movements in the near future.
1-hour graph:
* Bullish divergences in the peak and troughs. This I noted before as simply a rally due to oversold regions.
* Weak momentum in price action. Unlikely to pass the EMA's.
I weigh my decisions more on the higher time frame graphs due to the greater time that it takes to build price action. Therefore, solidifying my bearish opinion.
Thanks for reading! Happy trading.
I have been bearish for quite some time and am still leaning towards bearish movements. Just briefly summarising the reasons: Treasury yields, inflationary pressure, the Techincal over-extensions on the higher timeframes, overvaluing and optimism of the general market, and the overall high influx of retail investors in the market. All of these reasons combined with intuition and observation over the past couple of years of trading have molded my current perspective on the current price action.
Daily graph:
* The bounce up can just be a reaction to price and oscillators reaching oversold regions, so dip buyers have bought up these levels for profits.
* There is now a bearish confirmation between the price action and oscillator in the troughs of both.
* There was also a bearish divergence between the tops of the price action and oscillators (I have pointed this out before which is why I was bearish in my last post)
* In the most recent trading session (7th October 2021) the candle rejected the 50 EMA moving average on the daily and closed with a weak bullish candle. Suggesting that bearish influence is stronger.
* This rise-up is done so on low volume, further supporting the idea that this rally is irrational and can break back down easily.
4-hour graph:
* Rejection of both 50 EMA and 100 EMA moving averages. Suggesting bearish momentum.
* Death cross between the 50 EMA and 100 EMA. Also suggesting bearish momentum.
* Bearish confirmation in the most recent peaks and troughs between the price action and the oscillators, further supporting the idea of bearish movements in the near future.
1-hour graph:
* Bullish divergences in the peak and troughs. This I noted before as simply a rally due to oversold regions.
* Weak momentum in price action. Unlikely to pass the EMA's.
I weigh my decisions more on the higher time frame graphs due to the greater time that it takes to build price action. Therefore, solidifying my bearish opinion.
Thanks for reading! Happy trading.
Note
9th October 2021.Daily:
Bearish engulfing candle on the daily.
4-hour graph:
The death cross has been completed.
Bearish confirmation between oscillator and price action.
Hourly graph:
Rejected advances up.
Currently using the 50 EMA as a support
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