JUMIA still inder fire
Updated
As everyone is really excited due the ER whether is in short/long position. In advance, Rome wasn't built in a day.
We saw at the Amazon that workforce expense and shipping cost hit/strode them hardly and I expect the same in case of Jumia.
What is really a struggle for me is how to evaluate the currency exchange.
Their major market is: Egypt, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Kenya and South Africa. So how they handle different currencies when they change. I know my question little bit silly but I would be happy if someone would give me a nice lesson (and for everyone).
It’s important because their operating area is special, thus it’s in my opinion wort to keep in mind how the different currencies effect the company consolidated balance on daily weakly basis and so on.
Total outstanding shares (Million) 2017 2018 2019 2020 Current
78,53 78,53 78,41 89.63 98,59 ( 20% more shares )
This table above will be an important point.
I saw in Yahoo finance comments that a lot of “traders” is calling 50$ again and so on. Its not impossible but highly unlikely due the company increased the outstanding shares by 14% by the end of 2020. In near term (1Y) I don’t expect the share will reach 50$ without significant catalyst. The expected development of the company fundaments also does not point for such a high valuation.
The current outstanding share increase from 2017 is 20%. Not so good for those who expecting 50$, although its not impossible with surprisingly strong ER.
But highly unlikely – We expect downward pressure due shipping and labor cost.
Price target 20$ before any huge buying happening.
We saw at the Amazon that workforce expense and shipping cost hit/strode them hardly and I expect the same in case of Jumia.
What is really a struggle for me is how to evaluate the currency exchange.
Their major market is: Egypt, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Kenya and South Africa. So how they handle different currencies when they change. I know my question little bit silly but I would be happy if someone would give me a nice lesson (and for everyone).
It’s important because their operating area is special, thus it’s in my opinion wort to keep in mind how the different currencies effect the company consolidated balance on daily weakly basis and so on.
Total outstanding shares (Million) 2017 2018 2019 2020 Current
78,53 78,53 78,41 89.63 98,59 ( 20% more shares )
This table above will be an important point.
I saw in Yahoo finance comments that a lot of “traders” is calling 50$ again and so on. Its not impossible but highly unlikely due the company increased the outstanding shares by 14% by the end of 2020. In near term (1Y) I don’t expect the share will reach 50$ without significant catalyst. The expected development of the company fundaments also does not point for such a high valuation.
The current outstanding share increase from 2017 is 20%. Not so good for those who expecting 50$, although its not impossible with surprisingly strong ER.
But highly unlikely – We expect downward pressure due shipping and labor cost.
Price target 20$ before any huge buying happening.
Note
Price tartget due ER 12.60 at this level strong buyTrade closed: target reached
Altough the target is reached I expect serious further decline in JUMIA INC if the market correction acceerate. Absolute bottom 5$ (if no more negative information will come related to the company)
My erlier comment : Price tartget due ER 12.60 at this level strong buy ---MODERATE BUY my ecommendation at this moment.
Pay attention to the market, today.
if you see that the market will be up than you can buy stronger but at the end of the day I do not recommend to leave too much money in the position.
Trade active
Note
As of today, Jumia is under my price previously marked price target which is perfect. Its seems that $11,50-$12,60- range for Jumia is a local bottom.LOCAL BOTTOM DEF (If a stock has bottomed out, it means that it reached its low point and could be in the early stages of an upward trend. Often a bottom can be a signal for a reversal. Investors often see a bottom as an opportunity to purchase a stock when the security is underpriced or trading at its lowest value.)
My current recommendation is only trade, whether you have huge buying power or not. Well…. trade :D The most
Reasons
The company nowhere near to reach profit, not to mention the chaotic management communication, and a series of wrong business decisions.
It is seems to me that they don’t really saying the truth about their timeline. To be clear even though Covid 19 was seemingly a booster for the company growth, in the after math it’s clear that don’t.
They was unable to show just a tiny + from covid when the most their operation area was forced to step towards online shopping. What they do now with this issue? sec.report/Document/0001558370-21-016057/
Investing more into online marketing (trough Google and Facebook) while their problem is that they cannot even deliver everywhere where they would like due missing addresses. And they still think the way to promote their company is through the internet only. They will burn thousands of dollars /euros for data analyst professionals, working with big tech….. The result will be 0. They try to solve a problem on a wrong base.
I still believe in this company, but if they don’t realize swiftly where they are trying to do business and how they approach their goals the only question is when they will declare bankrupt.
I will continue this thread soon. Trade Safe
ElGato-WR-HU
Note
Jumia currently trading at the predicted price around seven 7$ The comming ER will show for as probaly the next 3M direction of this stock. ER numbers are important but, the guidance will be in focus due the company curent pricetag which is high if we look into the details.Note
This company easily can become another dead corp, they are playing with their last chance for long timeTrade closed: target reached
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