Long

2023/6: Surfing LTC - Entry now, Exit eta 16-20 Jun 2023

Updated

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LTC: $97.54

Technicals:
1. Fractals point to peak 44 days before next LTC halving

Fundamentals:
1. Halving on 30 July - 2nd Aug (thereabouts)

Analysis:
1. Entry now, searching for exit 16-20 Jun via MACD

Trade active

Note

LTC: $76.69

Technicals:
1. MACD turned negative on 6 June
2. Fractals peak 44 days before LTC halving

Fundamentals:
1. Crypto alt-coins generally down 20% due to SEC lawsuits on Binance and Coinbase
2. LTC tradable (like BTC), is not a security

Analysis:
1. No change in thesis (LTC halving)
2. BTC probably on way down, while LTC probably one last go at MACD as it goes up and turns down.
3. Event driven fall but will see where it lands and exit only as planned.

Note

: $77.317

Technicals:
1. MACD started to turn round the corner but is still negative
2. 2 days to Fractal peak (20 June) based on 2 August halving

Fundamentals:
1. A bit of a calm in the crypto universe after the Fed rate pause

Analysis:
1. Will see this as a final peak before LTC falls post halving
2. Take the surf and exit based on MACD accordingly

Note

: $83.90

Technicals:
1. MACD finally printed its first positive bar
2. Fractal peak was yesterday on 20 June, but seems delayed a bit, which is normal

Fundamentals:
1. This seems to be driven by BTC ETF rumors
2. supported of course by the halving on 2 August

Analysis:
1. will take this wave to the top and exit for sure

Note

: $92.302

Technicals:
1. MACD still going strong into its 3rd day positive
2. still supported by halving on 2 August

Fundamentals:
1. no change, driven by BTC ETF rumors (which is unlikely to happen in my view, for the next few months)

Analysis:
1. no change. will definitely have to take the wave top and exit.
2. this will happen within the next 7 days.

Note

$87.600

Technicals:
1. We are in the cusp of a negative MACD print in 2 hours
2. Same goes for

Analysis:
1. Asia opening shortly. Either it continues or it pops back up before it prints a negative.

Note

: $87.662

Technicals:
1. We will be printing the 2nd downward MACD in 14 hours based on current price
2. Same goes for

Fundamentals:
1. No change over the weekend

Analysis:
1. There are several news and speculations of a bull run for BTC and crypto in general.
2. But unfortunately, have to stick to the trading plan that is based on MACD and fractals.
3. Will monitor and be ready to exit in the next 24 hours depending on next print

Note

: $88.307

Technicals:
1. We have printed the 2nd negative daily MACD
2. Same goes for which has also printed the 2nd negative daily MACD

Analysis:
1. I am going down to 2hr chart, and hopefully, we can have a solid swell up, before taking the exit for our surf.

Note

: $87.510

Technicals:
1. We printed the first negative on 2hr chart, which means we exit

Analysis:
1. Overall, we can safely say that the fractal bump for LTC halving was disappointing for this 3rd halving. This does not bode well for halvings going forward in the future, including BTC halving. As we are seeing right now, BTC is unable to make a strong fractal peak in late May.
2. We end the trade with a loss but we learnt a lot. regardless, it was a very good trading idea ex-ante.

WJ.Y

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