🎯 LUNC - Are Elliot waves any indication of what's next?
Elliot waves are generally suited for use on high-volume trading assets where a very large number of transactions tends to move price similarly to how natural phenomena would react.
Altcoins are NOT such assets - compared with stocks, gold or commodities.
However, when hype takes over, I think Elliot waves can provide some indication as to what the sentiment currently is and what to expect next.
With that said I need to mention that charting Elliot waves, although rules-based, is not an exact science, and drawing these impulses and retracements is slightly subjective until the waves complete the move. This is why I'm playing with two scenarios at this stage - one in green (bullish) and one in orangish red (bearish).
Besides the wave patterns, I've added also PoCs (in yellow) based on trading volume. This is were I expect the price to stagnate for a while.
The bullish scenario is showing that we are in the 4-5 move and expecting to go beyond the high made on 8th September. One could argue that the 5 move can complete even higher/lower than marked, but judging from the blue trend resistance line I would expect us to hit that sweet round price of 0.1 cents.
However... compared with the other two impulses, this last move seems to be lagging. Just look at how fast it began rising from the green 2!
And is lagging around the .5 Fib retracement of the last down move (5-A). The orange box actually represents where one would expect A-B move to end based on Fib levels.
This is why I think it's more likely that we are already in an ABC correction wave.
I expect this move to end roughly around 0.01 cents, which is confluent with both 61.8% of 5-A move and another volume PoC drawn in orange.
Either way, don't take this to the bank. I just thought it would be fun to share this Elliot waves exercise with you. And to link below my inspiration for it.
đź’Ž Looking forward for your questions below. If this idea provided you value, follow for more.
Altcoins are NOT such assets - compared with stocks, gold or commodities.
However, when hype takes over, I think Elliot waves can provide some indication as to what the sentiment currently is and what to expect next.
With that said I need to mention that charting Elliot waves, although rules-based, is not an exact science, and drawing these impulses and retracements is slightly subjective until the waves complete the move. This is why I'm playing with two scenarios at this stage - one in green (bullish) and one in orangish red (bearish).
Besides the wave patterns, I've added also PoCs (in yellow) based on trading volume. This is were I expect the price to stagnate for a while.
The bullish scenario is showing that we are in the 4-5 move and expecting to go beyond the high made on 8th September. One could argue that the 5 move can complete even higher/lower than marked, but judging from the blue trend resistance line I would expect us to hit that sweet round price of 0.1 cents.
However... compared with the other two impulses, this last move seems to be lagging. Just look at how fast it began rising from the green 2!
And is lagging around the .5 Fib retracement of the last down move (5-A). The orange box actually represents where one would expect A-B move to end based on Fib levels.
This is why I think it's more likely that we are already in an ABC correction wave.
I expect this move to end roughly around 0.01 cents, which is confluent with both 61.8% of 5-A move and another volume PoC drawn in orange.
Either way, don't take this to the bank. I just thought it would be fun to share this Elliot waves exercise with you. And to link below my inspiration for it.
đź’Ž Looking forward for your questions below. If this idea provided you value, follow for more.
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