What's up traders,
Havent posted in a while.
Heres my take and outlook for next week, using the MES1! (SP500)
Current Outlook
Technical Look:
Price Action
Sentiment
Outlook for Next Week
Economic Reports
Notable Earnings Reports
I viewed the Firday bounce as a sort of 'relief rally'. My belief is that we could go higher on the back of it. The market has majorly 'oversold' by the numbers - and the probability of a bounce became increasingly likely. Upside resistance to remain mercurial on the rapidly changing sentiment narrative.
A possible outcome: retest the underside of the 200DMA.
I do not expect a notable price recovery towards ATH's until the tariff effects are known, which means: I expect higher than normal volatility for several months
Earnings projections (in the coming earnings season) will shed the required light on reality.
I have been adding long term holds - such as:
I remain ~90% cash at ~3.7% yield.
Resistance possibly at:
Havent posted in a while.
Heres my take and outlook for next week, using the MES1! (SP500)
Current Outlook
Technical Look:
- Momentum Bearish -323.25 (looks weak)
- MACD Bearish, possibly inflecting
- RSI 36.72, off lows and crossing MA (oversold)
- 200D SMA at 5775.75 (Below the 50 Day)
- 50D SMA at 5967.43 (Above the 200 Day) Trending towards a Death Cross
Price Action
- Bullish Engulfing Candle on the March 14 bounce.
- Price successfully crossed the 5600 Psychological Level
- We bounced at ~5500
- Experiencing resistance in the 5640-5620 Range (expected)
Sentiment
- Canada showed promise as heading towards a (take your best guess at the details) resolution to the tariff fight with the united states.
- Tariffs remain a major drag on the stock market pricing.
- Government shut down at time of this post, is apparently narrowly avoided.
- Gold Set a new high.
Outlook for Next Week
Economic Reports
- Monday - Retail Sales 830AM
- Tuesday - Building Permits, Housing Starts 830AM
- Wednesday - Fed Int Rate Decision 2PM, JPOW Speech 230PM
- Thursday - Existing home sales 10AM
Notable Earnings Reports
- Micron
- Nike
- Fed Ex
- General Mills
- Carinval Cruise
- NIO
- Tencent
I viewed the Firday bounce as a sort of 'relief rally'. My belief is that we could go higher on the back of it. The market has majorly 'oversold' by the numbers - and the probability of a bounce became increasingly likely. Upside resistance to remain mercurial on the rapidly changing sentiment narrative.
A possible outcome: retest the underside of the 200DMA.
I do not expect a notable price recovery towards ATH's until the tariff effects are known, which means: I expect higher than normal volatility for several months
Earnings projections (in the coming earnings season) will shed the required light on reality.
I have been adding long term holds - such as:
- GDX
- DAX
- META
- GOOG
- AMZN
- BABA
- UNH
- C
- CRWD
- IBIT
- NVO
- CMG
- INDA
- AVGO
I remain ~90% cash at ~3.7% yield.
Resistance possibly at:
- 5672 August 2024 Resistance, September 2024 Support
- 5724 July 2024 Resistance and later Support
- 5775 (200 Day SMA)
Give me a THUMBS UP / COMMENTS / FOLLOW ME!
-Will
-Will
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Give me a THUMBS UP / COMMENTS / FOLLOW ME!
-Will
-Will
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.