MACRO VIEW: MICEX HELD 5-YEAR DOWNTREND TEST (IN USD PRICES)
MICEX measured in USD prices (MICEX index divided by USDRUB) has held its 5-year (60-month) downtrend test in May 2015 amid expanding volatility.
On technical basis alone, if the price holds below the 1st standard deviation from the 5-year mean (now at 32.42), chances are it will retest 2009 lows (at 16.35) - which is a 50% fall in value.
What makes this situation unique is the fact that it is the first downtrend in MICEX (measured in USD) on 5-year basis in observable history. The history includes the whole 2008/9 crisis - during which the price only fell to the lower 1st standard deviation from the 5-year mean, never entering a technical downtrend.
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The best use of this information is the following. If you are an investor holding dollars now and waiting for an opportunity to invest in the benchmark Russian stock index (namely, MICEX), best thing to do now is nothing and wait till the downtrend on the 5-year basis is over (price back within 1st standard deviation from 60-month mean).
On technical basis alone, if the price holds below the 1st standard deviation from the 5-year mean (now at 32.42), chances are it will retest 2009 lows (at 16.35) - which is a 50% fall in value.
What makes this situation unique is the fact that it is the first downtrend in MICEX (measured in USD) on 5-year basis in observable history. The history includes the whole 2008/9 crisis - during which the price only fell to the lower 1st standard deviation from the 5-year mean, never entering a technical downtrend.
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The best use of this information is the following. If you are an investor holding dollars now and waiting for an opportunity to invest in the benchmark Russian stock index (namely, MICEX), best thing to do now is nothing and wait till the downtrend on the 5-year basis is over (price back within 1st standard deviation from 60-month mean).
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