Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: We see big bear spikes but no follow-through. Once every dip stalls, bears are out and bulls take over again and inching this higher. Tomorrow we either get a strong breakout above or below. As of now bulls are in full control, since bears have not traded below the prior’s day low for 6 consecutive trading days. Pain trade is up. Tomorrow is end of month, so I do think bulls want this monthly bar to be a big duck you to the bears and close it above 20000.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls want 20000. As long as they stay above 19379, they remain in control. Not a strong trend up but it’s making higher lows and higher highs. So buy pullbacks until it stops working. Do. Not. Buy. The. Highs.
Invalidation is below 19379.
bear case: Bears need to stop the higher highs and start making meaningful lower lows again. They are trying to get some selling going but on any decent resistance where market stalls, they run for the exits and bulls pump it higher. Bears are making money on selling new highs though. I turn bear again, once we drop below 19200. Neutral range is 19200 - 19700
Invalidation is above 19720.
short term: Can’t be anything but bullish. Bears could come around strongly any day, given that we only get bad news currently but so far, market does not care and we are squeezing hard. 20000 is the price to hit now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Buying the spike down below 19400 and betting on a lower high. Shorting 19600 was decent because you could have down it all day and made a duckton of money.
comment: We see big bear spikes but no follow-through. Once every dip stalls, bears are out and bulls take over again and inching this higher. Tomorrow we either get a strong breakout above or below. As of now bulls are in full control, since bears have not traded below the prior’s day low for 6 consecutive trading days. Pain trade is up. Tomorrow is end of month, so I do think bulls want this monthly bar to be a big duck you to the bears and close it above 20000.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 20000
bull case: Bulls want 20000. As long as they stay above 19379, they remain in control. Not a strong trend up but it’s making higher lows and higher highs. So buy pullbacks until it stops working. Do. Not. Buy. The. Highs.
Invalidation is below 19379.
bear case: Bears need to stop the higher highs and start making meaningful lower lows again. They are trying to get some selling going but on any decent resistance where market stalls, they run for the exits and bulls pump it higher. Bears are making money on selling new highs though. I turn bear again, once we drop below 19200. Neutral range is 19200 - 19700
Invalidation is above 19720.
short term: Can’t be anything but bullish. Bears could come around strongly any day, given that we only get bad news currently but so far, market does not care and we are squeezing hard. 20000 is the price to hit now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Buying the spike down below 19400 and betting on a lower high. Shorting 19600 was decent because you could have down it all day and made a duckton of money.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.