Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: tl;dr covered it.
Markets denied me fantasy, tough excrement. On the weekly chart it’s still just a textbook two-legged pullback to the moving average (daily 20 in this case, which is around 20000). We are also still close enough to the 50% retracement that it’s not out of the question that we reverse from here. Issue for the bears is, that the market went very strong into the weekend, which is a buy signal going into next week. Unless the bears get big help from newsbombs, it’s likely to expect more upside. Targets above are 20000 and then 20500. Below 19200 the next target would be 19000.
current market cycle: bear trend but above 19388 it ends and we will be in a giant trading range
key levels: 15500 - 19500
bull case: 20000 is the obvious target for bulls and for now my thesis is that we wont break above 20600. 20050/20540 would be my next targets above it. The weekly 20ema is right around those prices and that is where the panic selling again. Bulls see the move last week as strong enough that we are likely in a greater trading range which could even get up to 22000 again. Is it likely though? If you are a bull and bought 18000, your stop is likely 19200 now or maybe 19000. Do you hope to make 20500? I don’t know how you can structure a decent trade around that. More likely is the play that we are in a strong uptrend on the 1h tf and if the bull trend line, which is currently at 19100 - holds, we can continue. Once we are making meaningful lower lows again and fail to make new highs, this momentum is gone and bulls run for the exits again. Short squeezes are violent and can go on for much longer than anyone expects but once they stall too much, they crumble again.
Invalidation is below 18000.
bear case: Tough to be a bear. Momentum is clearly on the long side and bulls have almost no resistance. Bears can still argue this was just a test of the 50% retracement and if we build enough selling pressure, I think it’s more likely that the squeeze abruptly ends than continuation up. When all become max bullish again because the move is so strong that it must be the start of a new trend, that’s when these squeezes end and we crash down again. We did this so many times in 2022 that it’s hard to not remember them. You don’t have to go back to 2008 to find examples.
Invalidation is above 20500ish, max 20536 but above 20080 we likely go for 20600 or higher.
short term: Neutral at best. Way too early to short anything or look for shorts. Need to stop the higher highs and go sideways first. It’s best to not sell the first sign of bear strength, ever. Same for bounces in a bear trend. Never buy the first. You can get lucky but it’s just that.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-26: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We had the clear W1 and W3 but now it’s messy. Bear trend most likely over. We could maybe get another strong move down but it’s more likely that even then, we are in a trading range and until we see much more hints of a deeper recession, we can not assume that this will go much lower than 16452. Market is currently probing where the high of it is and for now I doubt we will see 21000 again but that’s a very rough guess.
comment: tl;dr covered it.
Markets denied me fantasy, tough excrement. On the weekly chart it’s still just a textbook two-legged pullback to the moving average (daily 20 in this case, which is around 20000). We are also still close enough to the 50% retracement that it’s not out of the question that we reverse from here. Issue for the bears is, that the market went very strong into the weekend, which is a buy signal going into next week. Unless the bears get big help from newsbombs, it’s likely to expect more upside. Targets above are 20000 and then 20500. Below 19200 the next target would be 19000.
current market cycle: bear trend but above 19388 it ends and we will be in a giant trading range
key levels: 15500 - 19500
bull case: 20000 is the obvious target for bulls and for now my thesis is that we wont break above 20600. 20050/20540 would be my next targets above it. The weekly 20ema is right around those prices and that is where the panic selling again. Bulls see the move last week as strong enough that we are likely in a greater trading range which could even get up to 22000 again. Is it likely though? If you are a bull and bought 18000, your stop is likely 19200 now or maybe 19000. Do you hope to make 20500? I don’t know how you can structure a decent trade around that. More likely is the play that we are in a strong uptrend on the 1h tf and if the bull trend line, which is currently at 19100 - holds, we can continue. Once we are making meaningful lower lows again and fail to make new highs, this momentum is gone and bulls run for the exits again. Short squeezes are violent and can go on for much longer than anyone expects but once they stall too much, they crumble again.
Invalidation is below 18000.
bear case: Tough to be a bear. Momentum is clearly on the long side and bulls have almost no resistance. Bears can still argue this was just a test of the 50% retracement and if we build enough selling pressure, I think it’s more likely that the squeeze abruptly ends than continuation up. When all become max bullish again because the move is so strong that it must be the start of a new trend, that’s when these squeezes end and we crash down again. We did this so many times in 2022 that it’s hard to not remember them. You don’t have to go back to 2008 to find examples.
Invalidation is above 20500ish, max 20536 but above 20080 we likely go for 20600 or higher.
short term: Neutral at best. Way too early to short anything or look for shorts. Need to stop the higher highs and go sideways first. It’s best to not sell the first sign of bear strength, ever. Same for bounces in a bear trend. Never buy the first. You can get lucky but it’s just that.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-26: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We had the clear W1 and W3 but now it’s messy. Bear trend most likely over. We could maybe get another strong move down but it’s more likely that even then, we are in a trading range and until we see much more hints of a deeper recession, we can not assume that this will go much lower than 16452. Market is currently probing where the high of it is and for now I doubt we will see 21000 again but that’s a very rough guess.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.