MOS/USD Daily TA Neutral Bearish
MOS/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Fed minutes were released today and confirms that the Fed is committed to two more rate hikes in June and July of at least 50 bps with potential for another 50-75 bp hike in September, and that they will sell mortgage backed securities (rather than let them roll over) if necessary as a means of reducing their balance sheet. Equity markets are currently responding positively but this could be short-lived. Additionally, to address the global food shortage, last week the U.N. proposed a plan for Russia to unblock grain exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea in exchange for reducing Western sanctions on fertilizer exports from Russia and Belarus; considering that Russia has found willing buyers of their fertilizer at higher price points, this is unlikely to pass anytime soon.* Recommended ratio: 40% MOS, 60% cash. Price is currently breaking down out of the uptrend line from 01/24/22 but is still technically testing it as support at ~$60. Volume remains high (moderate) and alternating between buyers and sellers every other day for what is now twelve consecutive sessions; this is indicative of potential consolidation. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $66 which currently coincides with the 50 MA, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 45.48 but is still technically testing 40.33 support; if it is able to establish support here it will likely test 58.12 resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 59; the next resistance is at 80.49 and support at 39.11. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending sideways at -1.65 as it continues to hover just below the Signal line (-1.54); if it is able to break out above -1.54 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 19 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish. If Price is able to reclaim support at the uptrend line from 01/24/22 (~$60) this would also imply that it has broken out of the descending trendline from 04/18/22 and would likely prompt a retest of $64.22 resistance. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest $55.79 minor support before potentially testing the 200 MA (for the first time since 12/01/21) at ~$46.28. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $60.40.
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