MOS Daily TA Cautiously Bearish
MOS Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% MOS, 85% Cash. *Putin continues his quest to annex all of Eastern Ukraine and has now concentrated attacks in Lysychans'k which is one of the last Ukrainian strongholds in Luhansk (the fall of this city will all but guarantee that Eastern Ukraine belongs to Russia). President Biden announced today the US will be establishing a V Corps (US Army) operation headquarters in Poland and has significantly boosted military presence/aid on NATO's Eastern Flank. Turkey lifted their veto on Sweden and Finland joining NATO, expanding NATO's presence in Europe. Potash and phosphate prices remain high but have come down a bit recently due to producers like Nutrien vowing to boost production (potash specifically) in response to the supply chain interruptions in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.* Price is currently testing the 200 MA as support at ~$48 after briefly breaking above it to touch $51.50 in yesterday's session; this is likely a rejection at the 200 MA as resistance but there is still a chance that Price can bounce here considering that it is currently breaking out of the descending trendline from 04/14/22. Additionally, Price is currently defending the uptrend line from March 2020 (~$45); this is an important trendline because if it breaks below it would suggest that the uptrend was due in large part to QE and a near-0% rate environment. Volume is Moderate (low) and is currently on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $51.36, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 38 after being rejected by the descending trendline from 03/04/22 at 40.33 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 80.49 resistance with no signs of peak formation. MACD remains bearish but is currently trending up at -3.33 as it attempts to break above -3.20 and form a bullish crossover; the next resistance is at -2.52 and support at -4.11. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 30 as Price is attempting to push higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to defend support at the 200 MA (~$48) then it will likely continue up to test $55.79 minor resistance. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~$45 before potentially heading lower to retest $42.50 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $48.78.
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