Technical Analysis (1H):
* Trend Structure: MSFT is trading within a clean ascending channel. Price is currently hugging the upper trendline resistance, with higher lows confirming strong intraday buyer interest.
* Volume: Buying volume picked up significantly during the breakout on April 10 and has since stabilized as price consolidates near resistance — a healthy sign of continuation if bulls hold.
* RSI: RSI is trending above the midpoint and gradually rising, but not overbought — signaling room to move higher without immediate exhaustion.
* Key Resistance:
* 392.92 — Local high. If broken, potential to run toward 400 and 405.
* Gamma Wall sits at 405, which aligns with highest positive NETGEX and may act as a magnet for price.
* Support:
* 377.50 — Nearest support from HVL (High Volume Level) and Gamma Support.
* 367.80 / 348.29 — Stronger downside zones if price fails the channel.
GEX & Options Flow Insights:
* GEX Walls:
* 405 = Highest Positive NETGEX / Gamma Wall.
* Multiple call walls layered at 400, 405, and 410 — creating a strong bullish magnet above.
* Put walls concentrated below 377.5, but gamma intensity is lower until 355.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 64.8 — moderately elevated.
* IVx avg: 46 — showing increasing volatility expectations.
* Put Positioning: 44.9% — almost evenly balanced with calls, slight lean toward downside hedging.
* GEX Sentiment: 🟡🔴🟢 — Mixed, but still slightly favorable for upside as long as 377.5 holds.
Trade Scenarios:
📈 Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Break above 393–395 with strong volume.
* Target: 400 → 405 (gamma magnet zone).
* Stop: Below 386 (channel midline break).
📉 Bearish Setup:
* Entry: Breakdown below 377.5 support.
* Target: 367.8 → 348.2
* Stop: Above 386 to avoid getting trapped by a bounce.
Option Trade Suggestion:
* Directional Call Debit Spread (Apr 17 expiry):
* Buy 395c / Sell 405c
* Risk-defined setup aligned with gamma wall targets.
* If bearish: Consider 375p / 360p put spread if MSFT rejects 393 and breaks below 377.5.
Final Thoughts:
MSFT is sitting on a powder keg of potential. Price is coiled under a resistance zone where gamma exposure aligns with bullish targets. If macro sentiment aligns, the breakout toward 400–405 could trigger a short-term momentum rally. But failure to hold the channel would mean a quick retest of 377–367 range.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
* Trend Structure: MSFT is trading within a clean ascending channel. Price is currently hugging the upper trendline resistance, with higher lows confirming strong intraday buyer interest.
* Volume: Buying volume picked up significantly during the breakout on April 10 and has since stabilized as price consolidates near resistance — a healthy sign of continuation if bulls hold.
* RSI: RSI is trending above the midpoint and gradually rising, but not overbought — signaling room to move higher without immediate exhaustion.
* Key Resistance:
* 392.92 — Local high. If broken, potential to run toward 400 and 405.
* Gamma Wall sits at 405, which aligns with highest positive NETGEX and may act as a magnet for price.
* Support:
* 377.50 — Nearest support from HVL (High Volume Level) and Gamma Support.
* 367.80 / 348.29 — Stronger downside zones if price fails the channel.
GEX & Options Flow Insights:
* GEX Walls:
* 405 = Highest Positive NETGEX / Gamma Wall.
* Multiple call walls layered at 400, 405, and 410 — creating a strong bullish magnet above.
* Put walls concentrated below 377.5, but gamma intensity is lower until 355.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 64.8 — moderately elevated.
* IVx avg: 46 — showing increasing volatility expectations.
* Put Positioning: 44.9% — almost evenly balanced with calls, slight lean toward downside hedging.
* GEX Sentiment: 🟡🔴🟢 — Mixed, but still slightly favorable for upside as long as 377.5 holds.
Trade Scenarios:
📈 Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Break above 393–395 with strong volume.
* Target: 400 → 405 (gamma magnet zone).
* Stop: Below 386 (channel midline break).
📉 Bearish Setup:
* Entry: Breakdown below 377.5 support.
* Target: 367.8 → 348.2
* Stop: Above 386 to avoid getting trapped by a bounce.
Option Trade Suggestion:
* Directional Call Debit Spread (Apr 17 expiry):
* Buy 395c / Sell 405c
* Risk-defined setup aligned with gamma wall targets.
* If bearish: Consider 375p / 360p put spread if MSFT rejects 393 and breaks below 377.5.
Final Thoughts:
MSFT is sitting on a powder keg of potential. Price is coiled under a resistance zone where gamma exposure aligns with bullish targets. If macro sentiment aligns, the breakout toward 400–405 could trigger a short-term momentum rally. But failure to hold the channel would mean a quick retest of 377–367 range.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.