MSFT Fake or Break?
Updated
With the SPY breaking through huge resistance on Friday, the question now becomes, was it a fake out? Is it a short term impulsive move higher before a bear market begins? Or is it the beginning of a longer term bull market? With 5 stocks making up roughly 15% of the index (MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOGL) it's safe to say the markets will need compliance from the majority of these stocks to go one direction or the other. So I'm gonna run down each of these stocks from a technical standpoint. As always, just my thoughts, and something to reference back to in the future, always do your own analysis before making a trade!
MSFT appears to have broken out of this consolidation zone it's been in the last couple months. So break out or fake out?
Breakout
A successful retest of the 141.61 breakout area and then a push higher could result in MSFT moving higher to the end of December potentially. That's of course saying it just rides the bottom side of that rising wedge. A failure to regain that resistance by the end of December would result in a major point of confluence in overhead resistance, where a reversal in MSFT could be anticipated.
Fakeout:
MSFT attempts to retest the 141.60, but breaks down even further, the next area of support would then be the bottom side of this triangle:
141.50-.60 area looks to be the sweep spot for taking a long or short position, depending on if the price action closes above or below it. A triangle break below and retest would then be a good shorting opportunity, obviously aswell.
Long Term:
Looking at future potential points of confluence, a test of the 2018 October highs and a test of this 6 year trendline MSFT has manifested would suggest MSFT at $116 October 2020.
A break of the upper white trendline though, and MSFT is ready for an "Apple like" soar higher.
Final verdict on MSFT: Neutral: let price action over the next couple days determine a direction.
MSFT appears to have broken out of this consolidation zone it's been in the last couple months. So break out or fake out?
Breakout
A successful retest of the 141.61 breakout area and then a push higher could result in MSFT moving higher to the end of December potentially. That's of course saying it just rides the bottom side of that rising wedge. A failure to regain that resistance by the end of December would result in a major point of confluence in overhead resistance, where a reversal in MSFT could be anticipated.
Fakeout:
MSFT attempts to retest the 141.60, but breaks down even further, the next area of support would then be the bottom side of this triangle:
141.50-.60 area looks to be the sweep spot for taking a long or short position, depending on if the price action closes above or below it. A triangle break below and retest would then be a good shorting opportunity, obviously aswell.
Long Term:
Looking at future potential points of confluence, a test of the 2018 October highs and a test of this 6 year trendline MSFT has manifested would suggest MSFT at $116 October 2020.
A break of the upper white trendline though, and MSFT is ready for an "Apple like" soar higher.
Final verdict on MSFT: Neutral: let price action over the next couple days determine a direction.
Note
Almost missed the Bull Flag setup...
Note
Still within range.
Setting up to breakout if these pre-market highs hold pending a catastrophe today (so like a 0.1% loss on the spy) The last few Friday's have featured hourly positive trade news tweets/comments to pump this market up. Should be a safe break....we'll see.
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