MSTR in big trouble. target 350... or worse.
MSTR in many ways has become a proxy for the bitcoin trade. With 91k bitcoin at an average price around 21k, the bulk of MSTR's market cap comes from it's bitcoin assets, not it's actual business. In many ways, this chart could resemble a descending triangle, but really we are just going to follow the bitcoin chart. While BTC hit my ~42k target today, I see it going down further still - perhaps as low as 30k in the coming weeks. That would imply nearly 30% more downside for bitcoin - putting MSTR around 330 from today's price. However, given the support I see aroudn 350, it is possible their actual business may kick in and offer the extra 20/share.
There is also a remote, but real risk things could get substantially worse for MSTR. Due to their leveraged play of buying bitcoin with debt, it is possible (again, remote) that a precipitous drop in bitcoin price could cause certain covenants in their bonds to force liquidation at low prices on bitcoin. Depending how low, it is conceivable (I don't know the details of their offering!) this could trigger other things that may be bad for shareholder, such as a secondary or something else. These risks seem very real, although most likely they would hedge or reduce exposure as things moved in this direction.
Lastly, it is worth noting the weekly chart momentum indicators on MSTR here does not look very promising either.
There is also a remote, but real risk things could get substantially worse for MSTR. Due to their leveraged play of buying bitcoin with debt, it is possible (again, remote) that a precipitous drop in bitcoin price could cause certain covenants in their bonds to force liquidation at low prices on bitcoin. Depending how low, it is conceivable (I don't know the details of their offering!) this could trigger other things that may be bad for shareholder, such as a secondary or something else. These risks seem very real, although most likely they would hedge or reduce exposure as things moved in this direction.
Lastly, it is worth noting the weekly chart momentum indicators on MSTR here does not look very promising either.
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