$MSTR: From leader of men to outcast
Updated
Michael Saylor used to be revered by Bitcoin fanatics, since he was mega bullish their favorite asset class and loud as hell. The ultimate degenerate gambler in the space. His other people's money gambling habits are nothing new, as he battled with fraud allegations back in the hey day of the Dot Com bubble. Now he's making yet another fund raising round to buy yet more Bitcoin, this time not using debt, but rather issuing new shares. There's a very clear technical trend signal that formed here and indicates a rally has started and can extend until either the $551.38 target is reached or the October 28th deadline is met.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the monthly down trend signal in the stock expires during October, which could be a sign of a general recovery in crypto for the next 10 months as well:
There's an interesting resistance level higher, see the red line on chart, it indicates the price zone where Elon Musk bought Bitcoin back in Jan 2nd 2021. The SEC filing announcing it publicly didn't come out until February 8th, and that was the very top in
MSTR, who was the loudest proponent of putting Bitcoin in companies' balance sheet as an inflation/doomsday hedge. I'm not in the stock, and option premium is historically astronomical so the smartest way to play it is to buy or sell stock in general. The weekly trend signal activated on Friday when price moved over $258.97. Entries at that price or lower would be good, invalidation for the signal would be on a drop under $219.39. I have a hard time going long here, same as everyone I talk to regularly about markets, but it seems like the right thing to do. I'm personally long Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as 
COIN, but not in MSTR yet. I'd trade this one small to be safe, since it's a far riskier play than the other 3 I mentioned. Perhaps a 1% long shot gamble would be adequate. 6.6%+- would risk 1% give or take. Risking 0.1-0.2% seems ok to me here. If this were to be a more long lasting bottom, upside would be significant and make it worth it. We can figure that out over time, as we get more cues from price and fundamental events.
Best of luck if you're entering this one, if it gaps up on Monday, then it's probably best to just let it go. Chances are you followed my Bitcoin publication and bot that near 21030, so that would be more than enough exposure really....Still interesting to track this chart and fundamental events as Saylor can have a significant impact on Bitcoin, considering the amount he holds. Risks floating over Bitcoin's head like a Damocles sword are mainly Saylor's bag needing to be liquidated in loss over time, and MtGox creditors being repaid. I'd keep an eye out for those events. Once out of the way, Bitcoin has far less risk and way bigger chances of achieving sustained, long term upside.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the monthly down trend signal in the stock expires during October, which could be a sign of a general recovery in crypto for the next 10 months as well:
There's an interesting resistance level higher, see the red line on chart, it indicates the price zone where Elon Musk bought Bitcoin back in Jan 2nd 2021. The SEC filing announcing it publicly didn't come out until February 8th, and that was the very top in
MSTR, who was the loudest proponent of putting Bitcoin in companies' balance sheet as an inflation/doomsday hedge. I'm not in the stock, and option premium is historically astronomical so the smartest way to play it is to buy or sell stock in general. The weekly trend signal activated on Friday when price moved over $258.97. Entries at that price or lower would be good, invalidation for the signal would be on a drop under $219.39. I have a hard time going long here, same as everyone I talk to regularly about markets, but it seems like the right thing to do. I'm personally long Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as COIN, but not in MSTR yet. I'd trade this one small to be safe, since it's a far riskier play than the other 3 I mentioned. Perhaps a 1% long shot gamble would be adequate. 6.6%+- would risk 1% give or take. Risking 0.1-0.2% seems ok to me here. If this were to be a more long lasting bottom, upside would be significant and make it worth it. We can figure that out over time, as we get more cues from price and fundamental events.Best of luck if you're entering this one, if it gaps up on Monday, then it's probably best to just let it go. Chances are you followed my Bitcoin publication and bot that near 21030, so that would be more than enough exposure really....Still interesting to track this chart and fundamental events as Saylor can have a significant impact on Bitcoin, considering the amount he holds. Risks floating over Bitcoin's head like a Damocles sword are mainly Saylor's bag needing to be liquidated in loss over time, and MtGox creditors being repaid. I'd keep an eye out for those events. Once out of the way, Bitcoin has far less risk and way bigger chances of achieving sustained, long term upside.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Trade closed: stop reached
I don't think this makes any sense anymore...market is either choppy or about to collapse sharply down next.Trade active
New attempt here.
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ivanlabrie.substack.com/
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