Over 200%+ Recoveries.
🔍 Overall Market Structure & Key Observations:
Major Cycles & Price Movements:
Pre-COVID Drop: Sharp decline (~49.29%) around Feb 2020, consistent with the broader market crash due to COVID-19.
Post-COVID Rally: A massive +212.88% rally over 653 days, suggesting a strong recovery and bullish sentiment.
First Major Correction: Followed by a -50.81% drop over 354 days—indicative of macroeconomic pressures and sector-specific weakness.
Second Rally: Another impressive +228.51% rally over 541 days.
Current Major Decline: The most recent bearish leg shows a steep -60.94% drop over 290 days, breaking key support levels.
Support/Resistance & Price Targets:
Gap-Fill Zones:
Two "GAP FILLED" labels indicate prior gaps in price action have now been closed—this often precedes strong moves in either direction due to liquidity.
Key Resistance Zones:
$86.70: Likely a neckline or prior support-turned-resistance.
$101.35 and $130.52: Marked as mid and upper targets in the potential recovery phase.
Falling Wedge or Channel:
Price seems to be in a falling wedge pattern, which is traditionally a bullish reversal pattern.
Volume Analysis:
Volume boxes (e.g., Vol 4.81B, 6.13B) are used to emphasize the strength or exhaustion of trends.
The declining volume during the last downtrend suggests bearish momentum may be weakening, which supports the reversal thesis.
Moving Average (Likely 200-Day SMA):
Price is currently below this moving average, showing that MU is in a long-term downtrend—but potential for a reversal is present if the price can reclaim and hold above it.
đź“Š Technical Implications
Bullish Potential:
If the falling wedge confirms a breakout above resistance (~$86.70), a bullish target of $101.35 and eventually $130.52 is reasonable.
Volume divergence (less selling pressure) and gap fills suggest the bottom may be in or forming.
Historical symmetry in price rallies (over 200%+ recoveries) indicates that the stock is capable of massive upside once sentiment shifts.
Bearish Risks:
A breakdown below the recent low (around $61.52–$74.21) could invalidate the wedge and trigger further downside.
Broader economic concerns (rate hikes, recession fears) could delay recovery.
🧠Strategic Takeaways
For Swing Traders: A breakout above the falling wedge and reclaim of $86.70 could trigger a long entry with a target at $101.35, then $130+.
For Long-Term Investors: Historically, buying near these massive pullbacks (-50% to -60%) has yielded high returns, especially post-consolidation.
For Risk Managers: Keep an eye on the $61–$74 level. If that fails, it could lead to capitulation.
🧮 Summary Table:
Event % Change Duration Volume Notes
COVID Drop -49.29% Feb 2020 — Market-wide selloff
Post-COVID Rally +212.88% 653 days 9.21B Strong recovery
2022 Correction -50.81% 354 days 4.72B Fed tightening, macro pressure
Mid-Term Rally +228.51% 541 days 6.13B Strong bull phase
Current Correction -60.94% 290 days 4.81B Present leg, gaps filled, wedge base
🔍 Overall Market Structure & Key Observations:
Major Cycles & Price Movements:
Pre-COVID Drop: Sharp decline (~49.29%) around Feb 2020, consistent with the broader market crash due to COVID-19.
Post-COVID Rally: A massive +212.88% rally over 653 days, suggesting a strong recovery and bullish sentiment.
First Major Correction: Followed by a -50.81% drop over 354 days—indicative of macroeconomic pressures and sector-specific weakness.
Second Rally: Another impressive +228.51% rally over 541 days.
Current Major Decline: The most recent bearish leg shows a steep -60.94% drop over 290 days, breaking key support levels.
Support/Resistance & Price Targets:
Gap-Fill Zones:
Two "GAP FILLED" labels indicate prior gaps in price action have now been closed—this often precedes strong moves in either direction due to liquidity.
Key Resistance Zones:
$86.70: Likely a neckline or prior support-turned-resistance.
$101.35 and $130.52: Marked as mid and upper targets in the potential recovery phase.
Falling Wedge or Channel:
Price seems to be in a falling wedge pattern, which is traditionally a bullish reversal pattern.
Volume Analysis:
Volume boxes (e.g., Vol 4.81B, 6.13B) are used to emphasize the strength or exhaustion of trends.
The declining volume during the last downtrend suggests bearish momentum may be weakening, which supports the reversal thesis.
Moving Average (Likely 200-Day SMA):
Price is currently below this moving average, showing that MU is in a long-term downtrend—but potential for a reversal is present if the price can reclaim and hold above it.
đź“Š Technical Implications
Bullish Potential:
If the falling wedge confirms a breakout above resistance (~$86.70), a bullish target of $101.35 and eventually $130.52 is reasonable.
Volume divergence (less selling pressure) and gap fills suggest the bottom may be in or forming.
Historical symmetry in price rallies (over 200%+ recoveries) indicates that the stock is capable of massive upside once sentiment shifts.
Bearish Risks:
A breakdown below the recent low (around $61.52–$74.21) could invalidate the wedge and trigger further downside.
Broader economic concerns (rate hikes, recession fears) could delay recovery.
🧠Strategic Takeaways
For Swing Traders: A breakout above the falling wedge and reclaim of $86.70 could trigger a long entry with a target at $101.35, then $130+.
For Long-Term Investors: Historically, buying near these massive pullbacks (-50% to -60%) has yielded high returns, especially post-consolidation.
For Risk Managers: Keep an eye on the $61–$74 level. If that fails, it could lead to capitulation.
🧮 Summary Table:
Event % Change Duration Volume Notes
COVID Drop -49.29% Feb 2020 — Market-wide selloff
Post-COVID Rally +212.88% 653 days 9.21B Strong recovery
2022 Correction -50.81% 354 days 4.72B Fed tightening, macro pressure
Mid-Term Rally +228.51% 541 days 6.13B Strong bull phase
Current Correction -60.94% 290 days 4.81B Present leg, gaps filled, wedge base
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.