Nasdaq 100 Index NAS100 The gyrations of February have created some interesting patterns on Nasdaq. After rallying to double top around 7000 it has subsequently fallen away to create a continuation pattern under the high, finishing the week by closing at the upper parallel of what may be a bull flag in formation. For that to remain the case Nasdaq has to push on higher from here, up through the uppermost small parallel of the potential flag. And that same parallel has to hold up on the next retest from above if and when it is broken above. If it can manage this then the pattern changes from negative/vulnerable to positive. If we see it happen we can follow long again. But until we see this price action materialise this index is still vulnerable and whilst unable to burst higher from here is therefore liable to fall away again on lack of buyers. If so the next question/clue will be: can make a higher low at around the 6694 line ? - that would be first bull signal - and the second would be breaking back above the upper parallel and holding on retest (above) - if so, it can be followed long.
Worth watching in the opening 30 minutes or so of whipsaw as the market opens - we may see a chance of a long emerging as the dust clears a little 30 to 60 minutes in. If so it should re-visit the highs again at 7000-7035. A move above 7045 would in turn be another very bullish signal, suggesting further medium term strength up to 7660 and nearer term strength to 7246. However, until Nasdaq can make this break higher it's still vulnerable to a potentally large sell off again. Near term support at 6775, then 6994-6687 and last gasp for the bulls from here at 6614. It must hold up here during the course of this new week if it is avoid a further and potentially steeper decline back to 6371, presenting a good short if we see it develop at any point over the next day or two.
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