Due to the price not breaking below 20,300 on Monday and Tuesday of this week, the price may attempt to break through the previous high. The short-term target is 21,800. After breaking above 21,970, attention should be given to the price movement between 21,970 and 22,136, while also monitoring whether market data and news support a further breakout.
Trading requires bold hypotheses and careful validation, verifying whether assumptions hold based on actual market performance. If the assumptions are proven wrong, the trading strategy should be adjusted immediately. Most of the time, trading failures are not due to strategy or methods, but because traders fail to adjust their strategies in time, being misled by market volatility and uncertainty.
Marshal Liu Bocheng had a famous saying on strategic planning that also applies to trading: "When the five elements are uncertain, you will lose completely."
The "five elements" Liu Bocheng referred to are: mission, my situation, enemy situation, time, and terrain. From a trading perspective, I interpret them as profit targets (TP), personal preferences (Bias) & risk control, market dynamics, time (macro), and macroeconomic data & news. This is why I always emphasize conducting weekly and daily analyses before trading, setting hypotheses, and testing or disproving them during the trading process. The purpose is to strengthen my understanding of the market, which provides the foundation to create a suitable trading plan.
For example, in this week’s case, if the bears were dominant, the market should have broken downward on Monday. However, the actual market performance was influenced by news (such as the delay in tariff imposition and earnings reports), which aligned with the first scenario described in my weekend trading post: "If the price doesn't break down from Monday to Wednesday and shows significant support or a rebound, the market may further rise and break the previous high." The market received clear support in the range of 20,100–21,200, so the bearish hypothesis for this week is no longer valid from a technical analysis perspective.
If the market is bullish, the next move should be to fill the daily volume imbalance in the range of 21,580–21,800, which can serve as the initial target. If momentum is strong enough, a breakout should be completed before Thursday. In a bullish market, the price should not fall below 21,185; if it does, further assessment is required. I will look for buying opportunities in the range of 21,220–21,360.
Trading requires bold hypotheses and careful validation, verifying whether assumptions hold based on actual market performance. If the assumptions are proven wrong, the trading strategy should be adjusted immediately. Most of the time, trading failures are not due to strategy or methods, but because traders fail to adjust their strategies in time, being misled by market volatility and uncertainty.
Marshal Liu Bocheng had a famous saying on strategic planning that also applies to trading: "When the five elements are uncertain, you will lose completely."
The "five elements" Liu Bocheng referred to are: mission, my situation, enemy situation, time, and terrain. From a trading perspective, I interpret them as profit targets (TP), personal preferences (Bias) & risk control, market dynamics, time (macro), and macroeconomic data & news. This is why I always emphasize conducting weekly and daily analyses before trading, setting hypotheses, and testing or disproving them during the trading process. The purpose is to strengthen my understanding of the market, which provides the foundation to create a suitable trading plan.
For example, in this week’s case, if the bears were dominant, the market should have broken downward on Monday. However, the actual market performance was influenced by news (such as the delay in tariff imposition and earnings reports), which aligned with the first scenario described in my weekend trading post: "If the price doesn't break down from Monday to Wednesday and shows significant support or a rebound, the market may further rise and break the previous high." The market received clear support in the range of 20,100–21,200, so the bearish hypothesis for this week is no longer valid from a technical analysis perspective.
If the market is bullish, the next move should be to fill the daily volume imbalance in the range of 21,580–21,800, which can serve as the initial target. If momentum is strong enough, a breakout should be completed before Thursday. In a bullish market, the price should not fall below 21,185; if it does, further assessment is required. I will look for buying opportunities in the range of 21,220–21,360.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.