NatGas - Waiting for long entry
Updated
This intermediate cycle is forming a triangle consolidation. This is a tricky pattern: I don't like triangles too much. The cycle count is getting screwed in the triangle, there are always false breakouts from the triangle... Usually it's a continuation pattern but when you bet heavily for the continuation it breaks to the other direction and when you stop out it's turning immediately and prints a hard rally to continue the prior trend... Somehow we still need to figure out what is going to happen because we would like to make some money here of course.
I still hasn't given up the long entry though we stopped out in our last trade.
We are still in the 3rd daily cycle. This 3rd daily cycle was halted by the 200 SMA. If my cycle count is right we still need to bottom in the first 2 weeks of August. ( In a triangle the timing is not working perfectly so it can be the last week of July or at the end of July.) Though the timing is tough here at least the entry point can be set well.
I will be buying between : 2.697 and 2.508$
In the previous DCLs the 400 MA was an important level, so I will start buying around that level, and I don't think we will break below 2.387$ so my last buy orders will be at 2.5$. This is a 7% range... Get ready for one more whipsaw in the triangle : we still have time for that...
PLAN B The only thing I will throw this plan out of the window is the violent breakout of the triangle. In that case I will enter 50% position at the significant breakout and 50% position at the apex test back at 3$ if it happens. Let's hope we don't need plan B. It's always tought to buy a triangle breakout. Big players can easily reverse it into a false breakout and we have to hold the position in one more breakdown.. And as I know you most of you hate hold in these drawdowns.
I see the same kind of consolidation in the whole commodity complex: Gold, Oil, Natgas , Steel .
I still hasn't given up the long entry though we stopped out in our last trade.
We are still in the 3rd daily cycle. This 3rd daily cycle was halted by the 200 SMA. If my cycle count is right we still need to bottom in the first 2 weeks of August. ( In a triangle the timing is not working perfectly so it can be the last week of July or at the end of July.) Though the timing is tough here at least the entry point can be set well.
I will be buying between : 2.697 and 2.508$
In the previous DCLs the 400 MA was an important level, so I will start buying around that level, and I don't think we will break below 2.387$ so my last buy orders will be at 2.5$. This is a 7% range... Get ready for one more whipsaw in the triangle : we still have time for that...
PLAN B The only thing I will throw this plan out of the window is the violent breakout of the triangle. In that case I will enter 50% position at the significant breakout and 50% position at the apex test back at 3$ if it happens. Let's hope we don't need plan B. It's always tought to buy a triangle breakout. Big players can easily reverse it into a false breakout and we have to hold the position in one more breakdown.. And as I know you most of you hate hold in these drawdowns.
I see the same kind of consolidation in the whole commodity complex: Gold, Oil, Natgas , Steel .
Note
It seems price want to tag the upper trendline of the triangle first.Waiting.
Note
PLaying out as expected.Note
The triangle broke down yesterday. PLAN B is off the table.As the 400 MA is moving I modified the entry point :
Buying between 2.7242 and 2.5.
I think it was a good decision to move to the sidelines during the last few weeks.
The chance of making money in the whipsaw was thin.
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