Short

Short $NDX $QQQ at historic overbought levels

Updated

Nasdaq reached a level of overbought not seen since 2000 and 1999 this week, against some regression channel resistance.

Note

Target 1 would likely be the 21 EMA again in the main chart area.

Note

The % distance from the 200 DMA is extremely high

Note

One of the main reasons I am taking this short (via puts on NQ expiring OCT 16 on Z contract) is the seasonal top in election years.

I talk about seasonality often, and one of the big shorts of the year is at the first week of September into around OCT 15.

Note

Over the past 8 trading sessions we have seen an unprecedented amount of tech blocks (mostly in FAANMG) which indicates that dark pools are selling into the top. I have not yet witnessed this type of block activity for the entire 2020 year.

#BlockSummary
SEP 3 2020, 10:15 AM EDT

VOL (K) | PRICE ($) | 🔼
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/FB)
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
420 | 303.15 | 💔 -2.64%
500 | 301.04 | 💔 -1.96%
340 | 301.00 | 💔 -1.95%
--------.--(SEP01)--.----------
● 457 | 297.00 | 💔 -0.63%
457 | 297.00 | 💔 -0.63%
--------.--(AUG27)--.----------
390 | 300.21 | 💔 -1.69%
--------.--(AUG26)--.----------
1,000 | 300.25 | 💔 -1.70%
● 446 | 298.00 | 💔 -0.96%
● 1,365 | 296.79 | 💔 -0.56%
--------.--(AUG25)--.----------
600 | 282.95 | 💚 +4.31%
2,952 | 281.20 | 💚 +4.96%
● 2,952 | 281.01 | 💚 +5.03%
2,460 | 281.01 | 💚 +5.03%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/MSFT)
--------.--(SEP01)--.----------
500 | 225.00 | 💚 +0.35%
--------.--(AUG27)--.----------
526 | 222.89 | 💚 +1.30%
--------.--(AUG26)--.----------
741 | 220.00 | 💚 +2.63%
● 2,116 | 219.82 | 💚 +2.72%
--------.--(AUG25)--.----------
● 1,296 | 215.80 | 💚 +4.63%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/NFLX)
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
● 251 | 551.00 | 💔 -0.38%
--------.--(SEP01)--.----------
500 | 554.83 | 💔 -1.07%
400 | 551.18 | 💔 -0.41%
--------.--(AUG28)--.----------
● 275 | 521.12 | 💚 +5.33%
--------.--(AUG27)--.----------
410 | 534.56 | 💚 +2.69%
● 410 | 531.76 | 💚 +3.23%
210 | 525.43 | 💚 +4.47%
--------.--(AUG26)--.----------
● 372 | 533.71 | 💚 +2.85%
--------.--(AUG25)--.----------
● 1,230 | 498.00 |💚 +10.22%
520 | 489.50 |💚 +12.14%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/GOOG)
--------.--(AUG26)--.----------
560 | 1608.00 | 💚 +5.62%
● 376 | 1607.50 | 💚 +5.65%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/TWTR)
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
● 772 | 43.15 | 💔 -1.78%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/TSLA)
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
524 | 446.35 | 💔 -5.31%
--------.--(AUG31)--.----------
247 | 458.57 | 💔 -7.83%
--------.-----------.----------
📈
--------.--(AUG25)--.----------
● 354 | 3348.26 | 💚 +3.47%
166 | 3342.00 | 💚 +3.67%
--------.-----------.----------
📈
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
● 200 | 573.73 | 💔 -4.34%
--------.--(SEP01)--.----------
250 | 553.00 | 💔 -0.75%
--------.-----------.----------

💲 Block level ($)
● Confirmed dark pool block
💔 % BELOW block level
💚 % ABOVE block level

Note

We are well beneath ALL major tech blocks from Wednesday SEP 2.

#BlockSummary
SEP 3 2020, 10:16 AM EDT

VOL (K) | PRICE ($) | 🔼
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/QQQ)
--------.--(SEP03)--.----------
234 | 298.10 | 💔 -0.80%
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
● 180 | 301.50 | 💔 -1.92%
● 142 | 300.80 | 💔 -1.69%
● 1,026 | 299.81 | 💔 -1.36%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/TQQQ)
--------.--(SEP03)--.----------
● 130 | 166.58 | 💔 -2.31%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/FB)
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
420 | 303.15 | 💔 -2.89%
500 | 301.04 | 💔 -2.21%
340 | 301.00 | 💔 -2.19%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/TWTR)
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
● 772 | 43.15 | 💔 -2.11%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/TSLA)
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
524 | 446.35 | 💔 -6.13%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/PYPL)
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
● 500 | 210.58 | 💔 -4.42%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/NFLX)
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
● 251 | 551.00 | 💔 -0.66%
--------.-----------.----------
📈 (tradingview.com/symbols/NVDA)
--------.--(SEP02)--.----------
● 200 | 573.73 | 💔 -4.89%
--------.-----------.----------

💲 Block level ($)
● Confirmed dark pool block
💔 % BELOW block level
💚 % ABOVE block level

Note

SPX futures currently trying to generate a tweezer top after (falsely) punching through a major ascending trendline yesterday

Note

VIX futures show that we have a big selloff into mid October. I have puts on ES and NQ for OCT 16, the last possible Friday weekly expiration before the OCT 20 VIX futures expiration.

i.imgur.com/ScXWZzV.png

Note

VIX election year seasonality is being followed with the ramping of VIX and SPX at the same time starting at the end of August, to the same mid October date.

i.imgur.com/kZrt3ZI.png

Note

I took a lot of profit here at the bottom of this pitchfork. What a VERY nice day.

Note

As an aside, the yield spreads against the 2YR could only diverge for so long against SPX. There is a much deeper correction likely to fix this

Note

The percent stocks above the 100 DMA also diverged for over 2 weeks from the SPX price, another reason I believe we retest AT LEAST the 3400 level back at the old FEB 2020 ATH

Note

HOLD ON TO THE 21 EMA at a minimum.

Next targets will be healthy 50 DMA pullbacks. At this point I am referencing 1999 and 2000 on what could happen next in this tech rally.

Do not be surprised if we get some rotations into beaten down sectors in the next few days/weeks. This is how the dark pools operate, which make up 40%+ of total NYSE volume now by the way.

Stock Blocks
📈
📊 5,383,837 😱 ⚫️ #DarkPool
💵 9.75
💛 -0.01 | -0.05%

Note

Seeing a lot of energy dark pools today. We have massive amounts of dark pool late sell blocks on SPY and QQQ. I will post those at the end of the day today. Those levels (and equivalent SPX500 and ES1!) will be useful in the future.

Here are the current major dark pool levels. One target could be back at the 20 million level of 337.05 or 332.14. Price likes to retrace to these major levels in the past for retests.

Only dark pool levels > 10 million are shown.

Note

We may be getting close to some kind of pullback here as the month range is Month CAM R3 to S3 on NQ. GREAT DAY

Note

DJI futures did the "least worst" today. We have explored the entire Weekly CAM range from R4 to S4. Week R4 just happened to be where Month R3 was located adding further conviction of a big top (there were MANY reasons).

If YM retraces back to the middle of Week S4/R4, that would generate a weekly doji candle from Monday - Friday. It is very possible we do indeed get a large counter rally.

If that happens it means a significant top has formed with a weekly doji candle and high volume, meaning the seasonality projections are more likely to mid October with a selloff of equities.

Note

ES (SPX future) is approaching the old FEB ATH near 3400. this was my first target. I will unload about half of the short there.

Note

Reminder that this is exactly what election year seasonality predicted for DJI, a top on SEP 2. Combined with all of the other knowledge it was a high probability trade, which is what trading is all about, probabilities.

Note

Next target will be the 50 DMA below, which is pretty standard if you go back to 2009, 2000, 1999 after this level of overbought is achieved.

Note

We are now beneath EVERY FAANMG block for the past 9 days that they were selling into toward the top. Dark pools showed they way when they unloaded all of the bubble tickers.

NDX is now opposite of the regression channel, I expect a bounce and then possible more selling.

Note

SPY has reached the first dark pool level, more below. We are filling a lot of gaps today. HODL

Note

I took a small long here on Month CAM S4 for ES. Completely closed the short for over a 200 point gain on ES.

I dumped the majority of NQ shorts and my 11300 strike puts on this volatility spike. There could be much more downside but profit needs to be taken at key levels.

Note

EVERY FAANMG BLOCK BUSTED. THEY SOLD INTO STRENGTH, ALL OF IT.

Note

Watch for 50 DMA retests on NDX and SPX. We may get a relief bounce. The overall bias is still down with seasonality to mid october.

Note

New weekly lows on AAPL, hits 20% total correction. Follow the money and the dark pool blocks shown on the screen and in text form below.

#BlockSummary
SEP 18 2020, 11:04 AM EDT

VOL (K) | PRICE ($) | 🔼
--------.-----------.----------
📈
--------.--(SEP16)--.----------
● 860 | 115.30 | 💔 -6.34%
● 2,400 | 115.15 | 💔 -6.22%
1,600 | 113.55 | 💔 -4.90%
--------.--(SEP15)--.----------
1,907 | 118.38 | 💔 -8.78%
● 856 | 116.75 | 💔 -7.50%
994 | 115.96 | 💔 -6.87%
1,000 | 115.38 | 💔 -6.40%
--------.--(SEP14)--.----------
1,395 | 114.78 | 💔 -5.92%
● 1,048 | 114.50 | 💔 -5.69%
--------.--(SEP11)--.----------
1,154 | 114.68 | 💔 -5.83%
--------.--(SEP09)--.----------
2,663 | 117.30 | 💔 -7.94%
--------.--(SEP08)--.----------
1,000 | 115.93 | 💔 -6.85%
--------.-----------.----------

💲 Block level ($)
● Confirmed dark pool block
💔 % BELOW block level
💚 % ABOVE block level

mortdiggiddy

Find the edge.

Website: daily-edge.com
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