Are Problems Over? Data from the US May Give a Hint
A couple of months ago, we wrote about the main threats to the global economy and financial markets in 2022. Inflation, a pandemic, disruptions in global supply chains - that's what worried market participants around the world.
And although 2022 has just begun, there is a feeling that thanks to Omicron, with its super contagiousness, with relatively mild consequences, the pandemic will stop for the foreseeable future.
Commenting on disruptions in the global logistics system, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, which handles nearly a fifth of the world's container shipping, said the disruption could stop in just a few months.
As far as inflation is concerned, everything is less rosy here. But the Central Banks have clearly entered the warpath and, in theory, the situation will stabilize after a while. However, even today, data from the US may remind that this problem is still far from being resolved.
Moreover, commodity markets are at multi-year highs. According to Goldman Sachs Group analysts, there is a shortage of absolutely everything, from oil and metals to agricultural products. And if so, then it is somewhat naive to expect any serious price reduction in such conditions. In general, we monitor not only the actions of the Central Banks, but also prices in the commodity markets.
And what else is worth monitoring is the situation in the automotive sector. If over the past couple of years food prices have increased by an average of 5%+, for energy - by about 10%, then for used cars the increase was about 23%. This, in turn, is a derivative of the shortage of chips and the underproduction of cars, the scale of which is in the millions. So the growth in car production will be one of the signals in favor of an early reduction in inflationary pressure.
And although 2022 has just begun, there is a feeling that thanks to Omicron, with its super contagiousness, with relatively mild consequences, the pandemic will stop for the foreseeable future.
Commenting on disruptions in the global logistics system, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, which handles nearly a fifth of the world's container shipping, said the disruption could stop in just a few months.
As far as inflation is concerned, everything is less rosy here. But the Central Banks have clearly entered the warpath and, in theory, the situation will stabilize after a while. However, even today, data from the US may remind that this problem is still far from being resolved.
Moreover, commodity markets are at multi-year highs. According to Goldman Sachs Group analysts, there is a shortage of absolutely everything, from oil and metals to agricultural products. And if so, then it is somewhat naive to expect any serious price reduction in such conditions. In general, we monitor not only the actions of the Central Banks, but also prices in the commodity markets.
And what else is worth monitoring is the situation in the automotive sector. If over the past couple of years food prices have increased by an average of 5%+, for energy - by about 10%, then for used cars the increase was about 23%. This, in turn, is a derivative of the shortage of chips and the underproduction of cars, the scale of which is in the millions. So the growth in car production will be one of the signals in favor of an early reduction in inflationary pressure.
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