NASDAQ (NDX) had a massive bullish reversal 1W candle last week as, despite a Lower Low opening, the intra-week rebound surpassed the opening of the previous week. The sell-off reached almost as low as the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) , which has been the Support level of the late 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom and has been untouched for more than 2 year.
This is not the first time we see this pattern. In an interesting twist of events, we saw the exact same formation during Trump's 1st Trade War, which bottomed on the week of December 24 2018, near the 1W MA200 as well and exactly on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Top.
The similarities don't stop there as both Trade War periods were manifested within Megaphone patterns. Their sell-off/ Bearish Leg was -25% (now) and -23% (2018) respectively, while the set-up leading to those Megaphones was a +103.50% and +113.50% Bull Cycle respectively. Also both sell-offs got an oversold (30.00 or lower) 1W RSI bottom.
So, since NDX has currently completed a -25% correction near the 1W MA200 and the 0.382 Fib with the 1W RSI bouncing off the oversold barrier, it is very likely that we've formed the pattern's bottom, especially if the global fundamentals point towards trade deals.
If this Low remains intact, we expect a similar +35% short-term Top at 22500 within a 3-4 month period and then long-term rally near the -0.382 Fibonacci extension at 29000.
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This is not the first time we see this pattern. In an interesting twist of events, we saw the exact same formation during Trump's 1st Trade War, which bottomed on the week of December 24 2018, near the 1W MA200 as well and exactly on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Top.
The similarities don't stop there as both Trade War periods were manifested within Megaphone patterns. Their sell-off/ Bearish Leg was -25% (now) and -23% (2018) respectively, while the set-up leading to those Megaphones was a +103.50% and +113.50% Bull Cycle respectively. Also both sell-offs got an oversold (30.00 or lower) 1W RSI bottom.
So, since NDX has currently completed a -25% correction near the 1W MA200 and the 0.382 Fib with the 1W RSI bouncing off the oversold barrier, it is very likely that we've formed the pattern's bottom, especially if the global fundamentals point towards trade deals.
If this Low remains intact, we expect a similar +35% short-term Top at 22500 within a 3-4 month period and then long-term rally near the -0.382 Fibonacci extension at 29000.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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👑Best Signals (Forex/Crypto+70% accuracy) & Account Management (+20% profit/month on 10k accounts)
💰Free Channel t.me/tradingshotglobal
🤵Contact info@tradingshot.com t.me/tradingshot
🔥New service: next X100 crypto GEMS!
💰Free Channel t.me/tradingshotglobal
🤵Contact info@tradingshot.com t.me/tradingshot
🔥New service: next X100 crypto GEMS!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.