NASDAQ 100 Short Term Correction Risk Analysis
It is important to know when the 
NDX and a few of its components are overextended and that a minor correction, aka retracement, is imminent. It doesn't really matter if you can guess the exact day, but it does matter that you can see the risk coming so that you can plan to take action on open positions and plan ahead for new positions for swing or position trading.
The Weekly Chart above shows where very strong support will kick in. Somewhere within the Green Rectangle, the index is highly likely to find support. This is a very strong support level since it is a yearly high, and that defines where fundamentals were before this earnings season. The only thing that could derail it is an UNKNOWN negative event for the Buy Side Institutions. That is a very RARE event. So that is the long-term view.
Just for fun, let's check the Monthly DPO Cycle chart. Exactly the same line as weekly but in a more stark perspective. The cycle line is bending which is a good pattern, but it can easily peak and go sideways, which would create a dip into the index's support level if a correction goes all the way to or into that rectangle.
Okay, now the daily chart to determine the short-term or intermediate-trend support level. The first higher Rectangle is weak support. Second, lower Rectangle is moderate. There are heavily weighted stocks that have fundamentals at or within these levels as well.
NDX and a few of its components are overextended and that a minor correction, aka retracement, is imminent. It doesn't really matter if you can guess the exact day, but it does matter that you can see the risk coming so that you can plan to take action on open positions and plan ahead for new positions for swing or position trading. The Weekly Chart above shows where very strong support will kick in. Somewhere within the Green Rectangle, the index is highly likely to find support. This is a very strong support level since it is a yearly high, and that defines where fundamentals were before this earnings season. The only thing that could derail it is an UNKNOWN negative event for the Buy Side Institutions. That is a very RARE event. So that is the long-term view.
Just for fun, let's check the Monthly DPO Cycle chart. Exactly the same line as weekly but in a more stark perspective. The cycle line is bending which is a good pattern, but it can easily peak and go sideways, which would create a dip into the index's support level if a correction goes all the way to or into that rectangle.
Okay, now the daily chart to determine the short-term or intermediate-trend support level. The first higher Rectangle is weak support. Second, lower Rectangle is moderate. There are heavily weighted stocks that have fundamentals at or within these levels as well.
Martha Stokes, CMT
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