🕒 15 min & Daily Charts | 📅 May 5, 2025
Ticker: NASDAQ:NFLX
Netflix (NFLX) is flashing warning signs after a steep rally from the April lows. Price action has now rejected the $1,150–$1,155 zone, confirming a local top with divergence and bearish engulfing on the daily. On the 15-minute chart, we see clear Fibonacci levels being respected with a break below 0.382 followed by a rejection of the 0.236 zone.
🧠 Confluence of Bearish Factors:
Macro Headwind: Trump's proposed 100% tariff on foreign film production hits Netflix's cost model hard. This geopolitical risk could reduce margins (source: The Guardian, May 2025).
Volume Profile Analysis: Price is above a thin volume node with little support until the $1,000–$1,030 zone, increasing vulnerability to sharp drops.
Fibonacci Targets: Measured move from $1,151.68 → $1,107.08 gives downside Fibonacci extensions to:
🔻 1.236 – $1,094.76
🔻 1.382 – $1,087.13
🔻 1.786 – $1,066.04
🔻 2.0 – $1,054.85
Daily Rejection Candle: Today's -1.74% bearish candle completes a rising wedge breakdown.
🎯 30-Day Probabilistic Outlook:
🟢 Bull Case: $1,290 (20% probability, if tariffs fail or are watered down)
🟡 Base Case: $1,066.58 (50% probability – Fib target + volume support)
🔴 Bear Case: $979.59 or lower (30% probability – volume gap fill and macro fear)
💡 Playbook:
Intraday scalpers can short retests of $1,143–$1,146 (golden pocket).
Swing traders can target $1,066 and trail with 3-bar structure.
Add-on confirmation with VIX > 18 and Fed staying hawkish on May 7th.
📌 Not financial advice. For institutional and strategic educational use under the Wavervanir DSS framework.
#NFLX #ShortSetup #Fibonacci #MacroTrading #VolumeProfile #BearishReversal #WavervanirDSS #TradingView #AITrading
Ticker: NASDAQ:NFLX
Netflix (NFLX) is flashing warning signs after a steep rally from the April lows. Price action has now rejected the $1,150–$1,155 zone, confirming a local top with divergence and bearish engulfing on the daily. On the 15-minute chart, we see clear Fibonacci levels being respected with a break below 0.382 followed by a rejection of the 0.236 zone.
🧠 Confluence of Bearish Factors:
Macro Headwind: Trump's proposed 100% tariff on foreign film production hits Netflix's cost model hard. This geopolitical risk could reduce margins (source: The Guardian, May 2025).
Volume Profile Analysis: Price is above a thin volume node with little support until the $1,000–$1,030 zone, increasing vulnerability to sharp drops.
Fibonacci Targets: Measured move from $1,151.68 → $1,107.08 gives downside Fibonacci extensions to:
🔻 1.236 – $1,094.76
🔻 1.382 – $1,087.13
🔻 1.786 – $1,066.04
🔻 2.0 – $1,054.85
Daily Rejection Candle: Today's -1.74% bearish candle completes a rising wedge breakdown.
🎯 30-Day Probabilistic Outlook:
🟢 Bull Case: $1,290 (20% probability, if tariffs fail or are watered down)
🟡 Base Case: $1,066.58 (50% probability – Fib target + volume support)
🔴 Bear Case: $979.59 or lower (30% probability – volume gap fill and macro fear)
💡 Playbook:
Intraday scalpers can short retests of $1,143–$1,146 (golden pocket).
Swing traders can target $1,066 and trail with 3-bar structure.
Add-on confirmation with VIX > 18 and Fed staying hawkish on May 7th.
📌 Not financial advice. For institutional and strategic educational use under the Wavervanir DSS framework.
#NFLX #ShortSetup #Fibonacci #MacroTrading #VolumeProfile #BearishReversal #WavervanirDSS #TradingView #AITrading
Note
Trade active
📊 📉 Technical Breakdown Summary (15m & Daily Charts):Breakdown from key Fib 0.236 and 0.382 levels on 15min chart.
Volume gap below $1,100 presents thin support.
Daily rejection candle aligned with macro bearish trigger.
EMA cluster far below current price, inviting mean reversion.
🧠 AI DSS Forecast:
✅ Current Price: $1,139.94
📉 15-Day: $1,064.59 (-6.6%)
📉 30-Day: $1,036.66 (-9.1%)
📬 Sentiment Score: 18 (Mild Bearish Bias)
📈 Visual model suggests a continued slope of devaluation as speculative premium unwinds and macro risk elevates.
🌐 Macro Catalysts (Bearish Weight):
🇺🇸 Proposed 100% tariff on foreign films by Trump administration adds cost pressure to international content strategy.
🏦 FOMC meeting on May 7th with low probability of rate cut; tight liquidity remains.
🧊 VIX > 17 threshold + low breadth = risk-off mode.
🎯 Playbook:
Short-term traders can target:
$1,087
$1,066
$1,054 (Fib & DSS confluence zone)
Longs should stay cautious unless price reclaims and closes above $1,146 on volume.
🧠 Wavervanir DSS Summary:
The AI model is trained on LSTM + Volume Profile + ORB + SMC logic and retrained every 7 days. Price forecasts are prescriptive and sentiment-aware. Expecting downside acceleration unless macro reverses sharply.
📌 Not financial advice. Algorithmic model-driven analysis for institutional strategy.
#NFLX #Bearish #AITrading #VolumeProfile #WavervanirDSS #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #PropFirm #MarketPrediction #Quant #TradingView
Note
🔍 Options Flow Analysis (as of May 5, 2025)
Notable Flows Summary:
Bearish Bias dominates the short-dated flow:
Sell 900C (May 9) – $238k: Strong bet that NFLX stays well below $900.
Buy 1040P To Open (May 9) – $239k: Betting on a rapid decline toward or below $1040.
Buy 1140P (June 6) – $178k: Positioning for sustained weakness.
Mixed Calls but all OTM, possibly hedges or speculative fades:
Buy 1140C & 1175C (May 9/16)
Buy 1200C (May 30): Long shot bullish plays — likely cheap hedges or gamma scalps.
Sweeps at Sell 1100C (Aug 15) – $607k and Buy 1040P (May 9) – $239k show institutional conviction on downside.
Note
The current outlook on NFLX is more bearish for the following converging reasons across technicals, machine learning, and market sentiment:🔻 1. Machine Learning Model (WaverVanir DSS)
30-Day Forecast: $1,036.66 (−9.1%)
The DSS model incorporates LSTM, sentiment score, and volume profile data, projecting a consistent downward trend.
This aligns with mean reversion logic after a parabolic April rally.
🔻 2. Technical Analysis
Daily Chart: Price rejected from $1,150 zone with a bearish engulfing candle.
Volume Profile: Thin support zone between $1,120–$1,060, increasing the risk of rapid downside movement.
Fibonacci Levels: 1.236 ($1,094), 1.618 ($1,074), and 2.0 ($1,054) provide clean technical downside targets.
Momentum Shift: Price failing to hold the golden pocket at 0.382 and 0.236 on the 15-min chart confirms early weakness.
🔻 3. Options Flow
Bearish Premiums Dominate:
Buy 1040 Put To Open ($239K) – Confident downside bet by Friday.
Sell 900 Call & 1000 Call – Betting price stays well below current levels.
Largest flow: Sell 1100 Call (Aug 15) for $607K = longer-term bearish conviction.
Calls purchased are OTM (e.g., 1175C, 1200C) – suggesting speculative or hedged plays, not directional conviction.
🔻 4. Macro Environment
Trump’s Proposed Tariffs: 100% tax on foreign film production increases operating costs for NFLX, especially as 50–60% of its production is international.
FOMC May 7th: Low probability of rate cut (~3–5%). If Fed stays hawkish, high-growth names like NFLX are pressured due to valuation compression.
🧠 Final Verdict:
NFLX is decisively bearish short to medium term (next 2–4 weeks).
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.