2023 Tradingdesk for Natural gas

Updated

From now i will have one main idea, and all the ideas as we reach cycle targets for the year will be updated in the thread.

I dont trade short term, keep in mind my ideas are longer term, and its boring.
We wait for the cycles to bottom and we wait once in the trade for the trade to mature.

Fallow, like so you dont miss the updates.

Note

Note

Update march until april:

Current cyclemodel shows gas is down until mid march and then a bounce is accpected until end of April.

On the weekly chart we are far stretched form the 21 weekly MA. Pice always catches up to the avrages in the long run. We expect price and the avrage to meet eventually.

On the daily chart we price crossing the 21ma for the first time in a long time, thats a good sign. But we are not trading it. You can if you want, but if you want to fallow my cyclemodels we need to wait until mid march. Mybe a retest and a double bottom is likely, before a new rally.

You can trade BOIL to go long or KOLD to go short.

This is our idea for March-April. Will update again for April-June, once this plays out.

Note

So far everything is going as expected, we fallow the plan.

Note

So far as expected.
Daily: Prie broke trough the daily 21MA and now testing the MA again finding support.
Weekly: Price wa stretched below the weekly 21MA and stil needs to catch up to it.
Fallow the plan.

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Weekly march-april update.

Our call was price breakoing out of the daily 21MA, it did and now its testing it again, showing weakness. The weekly chart showed price stretched far below the 21MA and price and avrage needed to catch up. It had a up move and now is down again. 21 weekly MA stil need to catch up to the price, before any serious move to the upside can happen.

Cycle shows weakness until mid march before a bear market bounce. Plan is stil valid. Fallow the plan.

Note

We are basicly in mid march now, we belive based on cycles that we are basing, before a bear market rally into april. Remmember its a bear market rally, its not a change of trend. We will have a bigger low in summer. I am waiting for that. But you can play the bounces if you want.

Note

Weekly march update:

We expected and a bearmarket rally, it was of little strenght. There is now risk for a retest of the 2.10.

Price and the weekly 21MA stil needs to catch up.

The market is now also munipilated beacuse of the war in ukrine, we dont know the true price the contracts are sold for. Keep the war in mind, its a Energy war.

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Upate April-May:

Current cyclcle model show we are inn the process of finding a low.
price is expected to rally. But w because of the war situaion and manipulation
of prices, we belive the strength off rallies will not be that great.

Note

Very depressed, stil need to cath up to the 21 weekly MA before we finds evidence for a good long. Most likely basing.

TradingIsNotGambling

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