The week has traded a bit stronger than expected, but the future contract rolls over tomorrow. And today there was a great deal of settlement positioning before rollover. As seen in the jump in volume at the expiration window timeframe. It is still expected that tomorrow there will be a great deal of selling into the strength of the pricing. The range of the 20-Day Bollinger Band for the March contract is more than $1.50. Last year it was closer to 30 cents. There were a great deal of contracts to settle with futures. Tomorrow we see a reversion to the mean.
I closed my putts last night, at the 3930 level. I did not expect the strength that we saw today begin last night, but I had my target in sight and took action. I am now waiting for the futures to rollover, some profit to be taken and then to enter my longs for the month. I was looking at the 3650 level on the upcoming April contract, but with the Models starting to see the cold coming, like discussed, I believe my new entry point will be 3800 on the April contract. Good luck and good fortunes.
Keep it burning!
I closed my putts last night, at the 3930 level. I did not expect the strength that we saw today begin last night, but I had my target in sight and took action. I am now waiting for the futures to rollover, some profit to be taken and then to enter my longs for the month. I was looking at the 3650 level on the upcoming April contract, but with the Models starting to see the cold coming, like discussed, I believe my new entry point will be 3800 on the April contract. Good luck and good fortunes.
Keep it burning!
Note
There are a number of factors that indicate what kind of sell off we will see. Can't predict the future. But I do think we will see some kind of drop before we head back up again. I am going to wait until the future contract rolls off tomorrow and see how the market reacts to the EIA report and the synoptic weather models come in Thursday night. I did pick up four OTM April ($3.85) putts today, because of my thinking that there will be an exit of contracts before settlement tomorrow. I would like to exit them before picking up my long calls for the month. April is not a month to run a strangle position.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.