Weather, Demand, Exports, Storage, Contract Rollover
Natural gas pricing acted as predicted for the trading week. After rallying for the week over 12%, it hit resistance at the upper band of the BB. After selling my positions at the 3730 level I took my profits and entered a short position which I had plan to exited at 3590. I did hold my shorts over the weekend, placing a sell order before close on Friday. I entered another set of $4. 00 calls an hour after opening Sunday night, after the volatility settled down to aid pricing. I am predicting one more bounce higher for the week, before the weather turns for the last week of the month. I am expecting another run back up to 4000 sometime after the news of Polar Vortexes, freeze offs, production declines, historic LNG productions, and a very very large EIA report. Whooo, that’s a mouth full!!! I am expecting to exit my positions sometime around Thursday morning before the market opens in NY. But I am quite excited as things continue to line up for March, and possibly April. The video will discuss my beliefs and the information which I hope will verify, again.
I will continue to watch support at the 9D SMA around the 3500 mark and begin to pay close attention at the 78.6% retracement lever around 3750. I am beginning to chart off the continuous contract since we are coming up to the last full week for the current contract. I prefer to trade off the current contract chart until that last week, on all the positions I trade. I predict an upward channel, trading between these levels until we have velocity below/above each of those prices. So, there should be a nice trading range for three days until selling begins in earnest for the contract roll over.
This week will be down right frigid from the Rocky Mountain to the East Coast of the US, with special attention up to the Appalachian Mountain. Throw in the rumors, and rumors of a big East Coast super snow storm, and my mouth begins to water for freeze offs. Also, LNG production continues to edge to historic levels as the cold air aids in helping the physics behind compressing all that NG. Plus, Europe at low storage levels and an increase in Asian buying. Throw in historic February demand for heating, and we have a nice set up for next weeks EIA report. February is looking to be one of the top three supply withdrawal months in record, followed by January coming in at number 2. Rigg activity continues to stay at depressed rates, and this is setting up 2025 to be a very promising year for upward pricing. The talk and verification about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is continuing to evolve, which has lent itself to some of the coldest March’s in history past. Not to mention April! So, my belief is that we continue to draw in storage going into the shoulder season when April begins. Which the EIA is starting to assess in its weekly STEO report. They are predicting HH spot to average close to 3800 for the remainder of 2025!
So, keep those shovels ready, and the heaters burning, because after next weeks moderation in US temps, I think the Ground Hog was right. Remember that the meteorology will again beat the models! It will get warm days 8-14. But I am going to look to enter the short and hold on until the models begin to see the cold returning around the end of next week. Next week will probably be a great weekend to hold onto longs over the weekend. Winter is sticking around.
Keep it burning!
Natural gas pricing acted as predicted for the trading week. After rallying for the week over 12%, it hit resistance at the upper band of the BB. After selling my positions at the 3730 level I took my profits and entered a short position which I had plan to exited at 3590. I did hold my shorts over the weekend, placing a sell order before close on Friday. I entered another set of $4. 00 calls an hour after opening Sunday night, after the volatility settled down to aid pricing. I am predicting one more bounce higher for the week, before the weather turns for the last week of the month. I am expecting another run back up to 4000 sometime after the news of Polar Vortexes, freeze offs, production declines, historic LNG productions, and a very very large EIA report. Whooo, that’s a mouth full!!! I am expecting to exit my positions sometime around Thursday morning before the market opens in NY. But I am quite excited as things continue to line up for March, and possibly April. The video will discuss my beliefs and the information which I hope will verify, again.
I will continue to watch support at the 9D SMA around the 3500 mark and begin to pay close attention at the 78.6% retracement lever around 3750. I am beginning to chart off the continuous contract since we are coming up to the last full week for the current contract. I prefer to trade off the current contract chart until that last week, on all the positions I trade. I predict an upward channel, trading between these levels until we have velocity below/above each of those prices. So, there should be a nice trading range for three days until selling begins in earnest for the contract roll over.
This week will be down right frigid from the Rocky Mountain to the East Coast of the US, with special attention up to the Appalachian Mountain. Throw in the rumors, and rumors of a big East Coast super snow storm, and my mouth begins to water for freeze offs. Also, LNG production continues to edge to historic levels as the cold air aids in helping the physics behind compressing all that NG. Plus, Europe at low storage levels and an increase in Asian buying. Throw in historic February demand for heating, and we have a nice set up for next weeks EIA report. February is looking to be one of the top three supply withdrawal months in record, followed by January coming in at number 2. Rigg activity continues to stay at depressed rates, and this is setting up 2025 to be a very promising year for upward pricing. The talk and verification about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is continuing to evolve, which has lent itself to some of the coldest March’s in history past. Not to mention April! So, my belief is that we continue to draw in storage going into the shoulder season when April begins. Which the EIA is starting to assess in its weekly STEO report. They are predicting HH spot to average close to 3800 for the remainder of 2025!
So, keep those shovels ready, and the heaters burning, because after next weeks moderation in US temps, I think the Ground Hog was right. Remember that the meteorology will again beat the models! It will get warm days 8-14. But I am going to look to enter the short and hold on until the models begin to see the cold returning around the end of next week. Next week will probably be a great weekend to hold onto longs over the weekend. Winter is sticking around.
Keep it burning!
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.